Recently, Dogecoin (DOGE) has seen a significant increase in on-chain trading activity, with the number of active addresses surging, attracting market attention.
However, despite the overall data skewing positive, the price remains stuck in a sideways consolidation, reflecting a divergence between market sentiment and price trends.
Bullish sentiment is high: Binance traders have a strong bullish inclination.
From Binance's long-short position ratio, bullish sentiment is warming up.
As of now, the ratio of bulls to bears has risen from 2.0 at the beginning of May to over 3.0.
In other words, the number of traders bullish on DOGE has reached three times that of bears.
The chart shows that since the end of April, the green bars representing bullish positions have consistently dominated the market, indicating that traders generally have confidence in price increases.
This clear bias, while indicating that speculative enthusiasm is rising, also suggests that the risk of trading congestion is accumulating.
If DOGE's price fails to rise as expected, these leveraged bulls may be forced to quickly close their positions, leading to a price pullback.
Surge in active addresses by 15 times: is the signal real growth or a short-term fluctuation?
Data shows that on May 14 alone, the daily number of active addresses for DOGE surged from the usual approximately 45,000 to over 680,000, increasing nearly 15 times in three days.
Such a surge in scale typically represents increased user participation or may reflect large-scale token distribution activities.
However, the surge in activity may not only be driven by investor interest but could also be influenced by short-term events or the automated generation of wallet addresses.
Therefore, whether this indicator can continue to support the upward movement of DOGE's price remains to be further validated by the market.
Price performance is under pressure: technicals indicate consolidation risk.
Despite the hot performance of on-chain data, the price trend of DOGE has not been able to rise in tandem.
After briefly touching $0.24, the price has retreated to about $0.22 and has recorded four consecutive daily bearish candles.
From a technical perspective, the current relative strength index (RSI) for DOGE is 61, which, while still above the neutral zone, is below recent highs, indicating a weakening of upward momentum.
Additionally, although the price remains above the 20-day moving average, indicating structural support, the pressure level of the upper Bollinger Band is evident, limiting the possibility of further price breakthroughs.
Conclusion: The on-chain frenzy cannot hide the consolidation pattern.
Comprehensive on-chain data and technical analysis show that despite the high market attention on Dogecoin, strong bullish sentiment, and a significant increase in active addresses, the price has yet to break through key resistance, indicating it is still in a consolidation phase in the short term.
Without new external catalysts or sustained buying interest, the upward momentum of DOGE may be difficult to sustain and could even face the risk of a pullback.