The historical data on the ratio of exchange whale holdings to market cycles shows that the peak ratio of exchange BTC whale holdings often corresponds to market bottoms.
As prices rise, the influx of retail funds leads to a decrease in the whale ratio, a pattern that holds true across all cycles — during short-term rebounds, the whale ratio declines due to retail participation, and then it will rise again.
Current market characteristics:
At this stage, the whale ratio is approaching the bottom level of the 2020 cycle, reflecting that retail participation is at a low level; this signal indicates that the market may have entered a critical point before the start of a rebound — historical experience shows that BTC price increases are usually accompanied by a rise in retail holdings, while whales are in the final accumulation phase.
Conclusion: The structure of whale holdings suggests that bottom characteristics are emerging, and retail funds entering the market may become a key catalyst for triggering a new round of increases.
