True venture-scale outcomes require unlocks of latent market | _weidai on Binance Square

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True venture-scale outcomes require unlocks of latent markets.
Google unlocked targeted digital ads (w/ search monopoly).
Uber unlocked ride hailing.
Bitcoin unlocked digital store of value.
What latent market are you unlocking?

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Blob gas price has dropped back to 0 after Pectra. Uber doesn't charge $0 when there are more drivers than riders. Why would Eth charge $0 for a valuable resource? What if EIP1559 is actually terrible for non-congested markets as it was designed for congested ones?

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Theory crafting: SoV assets need *stability* of cashflow/REV, rather than the lack of it. =========== If BTC (or Gold) started to generate cashflow, it won't stop being a SoV asset, at least right away. But, if this cashflow ever decrease, the valuation would drop in response. Plus, markets may over-index on cashflow falling: a SoV asset with falling cashflow is less appealing than another SoV whose cashflow is not falling (could be due to it being zero). Compound that with the fact that SoV relies on network effects, which means that relative marketshare movements could get amplified (a winning SoV can win harder). =========== In upshot, the downside of cashflow/REV for a SOV asset is that it makes the asset less appealing when cashflow falls. Therefore, what's really important for SoV assets is the *stability* of cashflow/REV, rather than the lack of it. (All of this is mostly empty speculation from first principles and not backed by any real data btw. So take it with a grain of salt.)

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Theory crafting: SoV assets require *stability* of their cashflow/REV, rather than the lack of it. =========== If BTC (or Gold) started to generate cashflow, it won't stop being a SoV asset, at least right away. But, if this cashflow ever decrease, the valuation would drop in response. Plus, markets may over-index on cashflow falling: a SoV asset with falling cashflow is less appealing than another SoV whose cashflow is not falling (could be due to it being zero). Compounds that with the fact that SoV relies on network effects, which means that relative marketshare movements could get amplified (a winning SoV can win harder). =========== In upshot, the downside of cashflow/REV for a SOV asset is that it makes the asset less appealing when cashflow falls. Therefore, what's really important for SoV assets is the *stability* of cashflow/REV, rather than the lack of it. (All of this is mostly empty speculation from first principles and not backed by any real data btw. So take it with a grain of salt.)

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Theory crafting: SoV assets requires *stability* of their cashflow/REV, rather than the lack of it. =========== If BTC (or Gold) started to generate cashflow, it won't stop being a SoV asset, at least right away. But, if this cashflow ever decrease, the valuation would drop in response. Plus, markets may over-index on cashflow falling: a SoV asset with falling cashflow is less appealing than another SoV whose cashflow is not falling (could be due to it being zero). Compounds that with the fact that SoV relies on network effects, which means that relative marketshare movements could get amplified (a winning SoV can win harder). =========== In upshot, the downside of cashflow/REV for a SOV asset is that it makes the asset less appealing when cashflow falls. Therefore, what's really important for SoV assets is the *stability* of cashflow/REV, rather than the lack of it. (All of this is mostly empty speculation from first principles and not backed by any real data btw. So take it with a grain of salt.)

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It's wild that merchants are still paying ~2-3% from each sale to banks & credit card companies. How come crypto has not won yet in C2B payments? Here're the necessary components: For consumers: token incentives, payment app, tradfi-grade account statements, on-ramp from banks, stablecoin savings with yield For businesses: point-of-sale apps on phones/ipads, stablecoin account with yield, off-ramp to banks, (+ token incentives) Banks & credit card companies bootstrapped this in the 60s/70s, why can't crypto companies do this today?

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