As the K-line of the exchange starts to accelerate, tonight's cryptocurrency market is destined to be a battlefield of blood and carnage. The butcher's knife of the market makers has been drawn, and the warning lights of technical indicators are all lit up. Multiple risk events are counting down like timed bombs. This is a life-and-death game interweaving wealth and liquidation; every decision could determine the fate of your account. 1. Technical Analysis Meat Grinder: The struggle between bulls and bears intensifies. On the five-minute chart, the price plummeted from $2646 to $2565, and the MACD death cross struck the bullish camp like a heavy hammer. The critical support level of $2550 on the weekly chart is undergoing severe testing. Once breached, a panic sell-off triggered by chain liquidations will resemble dominoes falling, targeting the abyss at $2450. On the daily chart, the 'Shooting Star' pattern resonates with the KDJ death cross, and technical analysts generally believe this indicates an opening of at least $200 downside space. Key point analysis:
Death Line $2550: Once broken, bears will dominate the market, with the next support level at $2450;
Resistance Level $2600: A breakout with volume is needed to temporarily halt the decline; otherwise, any rebound is a shorting opportunity.
2. ETH/BTC Exchange Rate Crisis: The Doom of Altcoins
The ETH/BTC exchange rate is stuck at the sensitive threshold of 0.024, which is the 'emotional switch' of the altcoin market. On-chain monitoring data shows that a whale suddenly sold 28,000 ETH three hours ago, and perpetual contract rates fell to negative values, with short positions rapidly accumulating. If the exchange rate falls below 0.02, the bloodsucking effect of mainstream coins will trigger a collective collapse of altcoins, and air coins may face a halving-like crash. Investors must urgently exchange high-risk assets for safe-haven varieties like BTC and USDT.
3. Black Swan Countdown: The Double Strangulation of Data and Policy
20:30 US PPI Data
Market expectations are that tonight's PPI data will soar by 5.2% year-on-year. If the actual value exceeds expectations, it will completely extinguish the Fed's rate cut hopes. Historical data shows that during periods of PPI explosion, the 60-minute correlation between cryptocurrencies and US stocks reaches as high as 0.82, with a sharp drop in US stocks directly dragging ETH down.
Early Morning Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes
If the minutes signal a 'delayed rate cut', market makers will leverage this to initiate a 'long kill long' market. It is worth noting that rumors about the continued delay of Ethereum ETF approvals are rampant, and the previously influxed institutional premium funds might withdraw at any time, triggering a liquidity crisis.
4. Market Maker Hunting Script: The Death Trap of 400 Million Stop-Loss Orders
On-chain data reveals a shocking truth: over $400 million in stop-loss orders are accumulated in the $2550-$2580 range, which is precisely the 'leek harvesting area' carefully set by market makers. They create false breakouts through high-frequency trading, luring bottom-fishing funds in, and then use large sell orders to trigger chain liquidations.
Retail Survival Strategy:
Bottom-Fishing Discipline: Increase positions by 10% for every $50 drop below $2550, with total positions strictly controlled within 50%;
Short-term Game: $2600 is the watershed for bulls and bears; if broken, look to $2650. If pressured and pulled back, immediately chase the shorts, setting a $50 stop-loss to lock in profits.
5. Altcoin Doomsday Warning: The Butterfly Effect of ETH Collapse
Historical data shows that when ETH's daily decline exceeds 8%, altcoins average a drop of 15%-20%, and air coins may plummet over 30%. Investors are advised to immediately clean up low liquidity coins and transfer funds to mainstream assets like BTC and ETH, or convert to stablecoin USDT to avoid systemic risks.
Ultimatum: Three Iron Rules for Tonight's Operations
Data-Driven Trading: Immediately short on PPI data exceeding expectations, increase short positions after confirming ETF delay news;
Survival Rule for Support Levels: Leave decisively if $2550 is broken, do not harbor any illusions;
Position Survival Line: Keep contract leverage within 5 times, and spot holdings should not exceed 60% of total capital.
As the clock on the exchange approaches midnight, every fluctuation on the K-line chart could be the cold light of the market maker's scythe. In this life-and-death game of bulls and bears, both greed and fear are deadly poisons. Only by strictly adhering to discipline and respecting the market can one survive in the blood and storm. Remember: the cryptocurrency market is never short of wealth myths, but surviving is always the first rule.
