Inflation data in the U.S.: Will April confirm that the path to 2% is secured?

This Tuesday, May 13, the market will be fully focused on the release of the inflation data for April in the United States, a figure that could finalize the tone of monetary policy for the coming months. The general index is expected to remain at 2.4% year-on-year, the same level as in March, which would reinforce the idea that disinflation is progressing steadily, although with some short-term fluctuations.

The publication arrives just a few days after the Federal Reserve decided to keep rates unchanged at 4.5%, acknowledging both the progress in inflation and the need not to rush into cuts. But it also made it clear that the restrictive cycle is close to its end and that, if the next data confirms the trend, there could be movements before the third quarter.