Let’s look at the key factors driving the market. Last year, BTC surged because the Federal Reserve signaled interest rate cuts, Trump supported cryptocurrency, and market sentiment was high, all coming together.
But now, while Trump has made some moves, the capital inflow he brings is only in the tens of billions, which has limited effects; the market lacks new hotspots, and enthusiasm is low as everyone is watching and waiting.
Worse still, the chances of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June are virtually nil, with CME interest rate futures showing over a 90% probability of no rate cut.
Without the stimulus of interest rate cuts, large-scale inflows of stablecoins will be difficult, and without continuous funding to drive it forward, it will be very challenging for BTC to break past its historical high and set new records.
So, while BTC looks very enticing as it approaches its previous high, to truly reach the peak, we still need capital and good news to “ignite” it, so don’t be blindly optimistic in the short term.
However, don’t be too pessimistic; this is actually a preparatory adjustment— as long as we hold on, we are accumulating energy for the next stage.
