Today, Xiao Yu discusses whether the market can continue its upward trend?
Recently, the price of Bitcoin has approached historical highs, and many investors are focusing on the sustainability of the market while waiting and seeing. The following analysis is based on several key dimensions:
1. The true rhythm of capital inflow
Since April, the cryptocurrency market has seen a cumulative net inflow of $30 billion, but the increase in stablecoins is only $6.4 billion, significantly lower than the $11 billion during the active market period at the end of last year. This characteristic of 'price rebound and capital lag' is highly similar to the market trajectory in the summer of 2023, which may ultimately constrain the depth of the upward trend.
2. The driving logic of historical market trends
The last round of Bitcoin breaking through $100,000+ relied on three core driving forces:
① The Federal Reserve unexpectedly announced a 50 basis point rate cut, signaling liquidity easing;
② Trump's election campaign heated up and released clear signals friendly to cryptocurrency;
③ Market sentiment exploded, with a monthly influx of $11 billion in liquid funds creating a wealth effect.
3. The core contradictions in the current market
Policy expectations cool down: The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June is less than 10%, and the monetary policy continues a tightening tone.
Weak incremental capital: The temporary pause of Trump's tariff policy has not brought substantial capital injection, and the market lacks a new narrative drive.
Diminishing profit effect: The lack of phenomenal hotspots has activated retail participation enthusiasm, and the willingness of capital to enter is significantly lower than in the previous round of the market.
Although prices are approaching historical highs, the scale of capital in this round of the market is only half of the previous one, and there is a lack of unexpected positive support. Without a sudden large-scale capital inflow, the resistance to continuous breakthroughs is considerable.
Xiao Yu suggests that everyone maintain rational judgment, avoid being misled by short-term price fluctuations, and focus on tracking on-chain capital flow data to cautiously assess the true market momentum.
