$BTC $ETH The three major logics of humanity's prediction of the future and understanding of the world: analogy, induction, deduction.
Analogy: Premising a judgment based on certain similar attributes of two entities, deducing that the other attributes of the two entities are also similar. For example, you and she are both women; she can have children, and so can you. Induction: summarizing commonalities from individual facts, for example, the sun rose in the east yesterday, so it will also rise in the east today. Inductive reasoning is the basis of humanity's understanding of the world. Deduction: a reasoning method from the general to the specific; for example, all humans will die, you are human, so you will also die. In the stock market, forex, futures, and crypto markets... there is a super fundamental consensus called 'K-line', which plots price movements into K-lines, judging future trends based on past price movements. People firmly believe that technical analysis is very useful, and indeed, many have become wealthy through technical analysis.
So the question arises, what will happen if everyone knows the answer? The past trends of cryptocurrencies can be divided into three segments:
The bull market continues to rise sharply, experiences oscillating adjustments, and continues to rise.
Crash (continuous halving)
Sideways oscillation, continuing to the next round of the bull market.
Anyone with a little bit of insight can see that as long as it is a bull market, mindlessly going long will guarantee profits. As long as there are multiple halving events after a big drop, mindlessly bottom-fishing will surely lead to huge profits. Major funds, mastering the rules of continuous rises in a bull market, will sell high at this time, perfectly cashing out, leading to the situation of a bull market crash. When most people use high leverage to go long, this wave of price drops will cause countless people to be liquidated. The consensus of the bull market still exists, and after a crash, it will quickly rise again. Therefore, the unique feature of this bull market is: oscillating upward.
Based on past trends, people have realized that repeatedly bottoming after halving can lead to wealth, so some will bottom-fish early, causing the predicted bottom price to rise. Currently, a significant drop hasn't occurred yet, but I can confirm that the upcoming crash will not have continuous halving like before and will not reach the previous round's bottom price.
When everyone knows the future, the future will change. A truly effective prediction is not about seeking a sword by carving a boat, but rather dynamic forecasting. 1. In a public market, people can predict the future based on past patterns. 2. People will respond based on the predicted future, and this feedback will affect the future.
3. Adjust your behavior based on the affected future, that is, predict the future of the future, only then can you approach reality. Will this allow you to make money? Wrong. If your strength is too powerful, your behavior itself will interfere with the future, still rendering the prediction ineffective. Only weak individuals, whose strength is insufficient to influence the future, can fish in troubled waters and make big profits.
For example: if a cryptocurrency has been stagnant for a long time, and everyone considers it trash, after many despairing investors throw away their holdings, if the major player raises the price again, and if the rise is not for shorting but goes even higher, then the rise is meaningless. The major player is not a philanthropist; their purpose in raising the price is certainly to make money.
In fact, making money in the crypto market is much easier than in the A-shares because there are more wealthy people in crypto, major players have strong capital, and there are also many retail investors. The most important point is that the greed of people in the crypto market is very strong. Therefore, these three points make it easy to earn money.
Understanding the relationship between major players + large investors + small investors will allow one to navigate the murky waters of the crypto world effortlessly, as long as one is not greedy, earning 200,000-300,000 a month.
