1. Fundamentals: Three major events ignite market undercurrents.
1. Tether enters the AI field, aiming at the Web3 offline intelligent ecosystem.
Tether announces the launch of the AI development platform 'QVAC', aimed at promoting AI agents to run locally, support offline transactions, and integrate USDT and BTC payments. This could reshape the AI + blockchain integration path and expand the application boundaries of stablecoins once again.
2. The political storm in the US spills over into the crypto circle, with the Democrats naming Trump.
Recently, the Democratic Party has requested the Treasury Department to investigate the details of Trump's past crypto transactions, implying a risk of 'political bribery'. This event may trigger a new round of regulatory storm around 'crypto assets and politics'.
3. JPMorgan completes its first ONDO on-chain US Treasury transaction.
JPMorgan completes its first tokenized treasury transaction using the public blockchain ONDO, officially opening the channel for traditional assets on-chain. This move may indicate that financial giants are accelerating their embrace of on-chain assets.
2. Technical analysis: Mainstream coin market analysis.
[BTC] High-level inducement, is a false breakout taking shape?
Daily observation: Bitcoin is still in a volatile upward structure, but consecutive upper shadow candlesticks indicate weakness in bulls. Yesterday's high could not hold, and today continues to weaken, having broken below the daily MA7, facing a key defense at $98,000 in the short term.
4-hour level: Yesterday's rebound touched 104,800 before turning downward, with a clear downward trend. The Asian session continues to show weakness, with intraday operations focusing on the upper pressure range of $10,350-10,450, and support below at $10,150-10,050, with key defense still looking at $98,000.
[ETH] High rebound and fall, phase adjustment officially begins.
Daily performance: Although Ethereum broke through $2700 strongly, it has repeatedly formed long upper shadow lines, indicating heavy selling pressure above. The current trend has entered an adjustment range, with the high position in February's trapped positions continuing to suppress in the $2600-2800 range.
4-hour chart: After briefly breaking 2700, it entered a slow decline rhythm, with initial support formed at $2550. If it breaks below, it may continue to explore the $2400-2300 range, with bottom testing possible in the $2280-2350 area.
Intraday focus: Upper pressure at $2610-2640, lower support at $2550 and $2480, and it is advisable to wait and watch for confirmation of the bottom structure.
3. Altcoins: The pullback phase has emerged, and rebounds require bottom signals.
Yesterday's clear indication of 'direct profit lock' was perfectly validated by today's market performance. Mainstream altcoins rebounded and fell back, with some experiencing significant pullbacks, consistent with the phase adjustment rhythm.
According to market laws: During an upward trend, the mid-term adjustment pullback is generally 20%-30%, while in a downward trend, the overall pullback space usually reaches 50%, with rebound amplitude only around 20%-30%.
At this stage, it is recommended to operate cautiously, mainly observing and waiting for clear bottom signals before planning for explosive operations.
4. Strategy Summary: Perfect execution, continue to play around key points.
Yesterday's forecast for BTC's upper resistance range was 1045-1055, with an actual peak of 1048; ETH's target was 2660-2700, with an actual hit of 2686. Both were highly aligned with the analysis, and the strategy was executed accurately.
Today's strategy still focuses on the research report range layout, strictly controlling positions and pace, following the trend, and avoiding blind chasing of rises and falls.
