1. The economic engine suddenly stalls! Cohen sounds the alarm for recession.
As the head of the $40 billion asset management empire known as the 'crazy money machine on Wall Street', Steve Cohen made a strong statement at the Thorn Investment Summit: 'The U.S. economy is experiencing a cliff-like slowdown. Although it has not yet fallen into the abyss of recession, the growth gears have clearly jammed.' This 68-year-old capital shark first revealed his 'pessimistic hand' to the market, predicting that U.S. GDP growth will plummet below the death line of 1.5% in 2025, nearly halving from 3.2% in 2024.
The warning is not unfounded: Following an unexpected downgrade in growth for Q4 2024, core data such as retail sales and industrial output in early 2025 continue to fall below expectations, compounded by a 'triple strangulation' of high tariff barriers, tightened immigration policies, and government spending cuts. The U.S. economy is sliding into the 'sub-healthy growth range' mentioned by Cohen. Furthermore, the Fed's rate cut script is changing! Cohen bursts the market's fantasy regarding the anticipated rate cut cycle, directly pouring cold water on it: 'The Fed will not wield the rate cut magic wand in the short term; they are being plagued by the inflation ghost induced by tariffs.' Unlike the mainstream market expectation of a 'first rate cut in Q3 2025', this top Wall Street trader points out that the as high as 15% import tariffs are reshaping the underlying logic of inflation, and core PCE may rebound to 3.8% in Q2, forcing the Fed into a dilemma between 'growth maintenance' and 'inflation control.'
'Don't expect the central bank to be a savior; this time their arsenal is more empty than imagined.' Cohen's warning caused the U.S. stock futures, which had soared due to rate cut expectations, to plummet instantly. CME interest rate futures show the probability of a June rate cut dropping from 75% to 52%. 3. April's 'Death Dance' in the U.S. stock market hides secrets! Cohen reveals the unusual volatility by reviewing the '15 terrifying days' of the U.S. stock market in April — the S&P 500 staged a 12% rollercoaster in 10 trading days. Cohen sharply commented: 'This level of V-shaped reversal has only occurred 7 times in history, it is an anomaly on the financial market's ECG.' He revealed that he is closely monitoring the 'market stress response' after the May CPI data release, considering it a key gauge for assessing whether the current 18.5 times dynamic PE is reasonable.
This veteran who has experienced 5 stock market crashes gives a stress test: If a data storm triggers an adjustment, the S&P 500 may retrace to the 4200-4500 range, corresponding to a 12%-15% technical correction, but emphasizes 'this is not the end of the world'; rather, it may create a 'golden pit' layout opportunity. 4. Making a killing against the trend with a 2.3%! The crazy money machine shows its harvesting nature again. As the market is immersed in panic, Cohen's Point72 staged a 'Crisis Alpha': capturing a 2.3% monthly return during the April financial tsunami, with a year-to-date return rate of 3%, far exceeding the S&P 500's -1.2% performance during the same period. Its secret weapon lies in accurately positioning defensive sectors — increasing healthcare and essential consumption holdings to 45%, while effectively hedging systemic risks through VIX option combinations.
'The difference between professional investors and retail investors lies in whether they can firmly grip the steering wheel in a lightning storm.' Cohen's practical achievements serve as the best footnote for his strategy of being bearish without shorting. Five, the three major strangulations are suffocating the U.S. economy! Cohen rarely deeply shorts and, at the Miami Investment Summit, he first disclosed the 'three logics of economic shorting':
✅ Tariff Strangulation: The tiered tariffs of 10%-25% are essentially 'invisible taxes on the public', expected to push corporate cost share to 6.8%.
✅ Policy Strangulation: The efficiency department's austerity plan will cut $120 billion in spending, equivalent to 0.5% of GDP.
✅ Population Strangulation: Tightened immigration laws have expanded the labor gap to 3 million, and the wage inflation spiral is difficult to break.
'This is my most bearish market judgment in 15 years,' Cohen bluntly stated, 'the best yield period is over, and investors should fasten their seatbelts.' His remarks resonate with top institutions like Bridgewater and Citadel, indicating that traditional financial markets are entering a 'volatility harvesting era.'
[Crypto Circle Revelation] Signs of a traditional financial earthquake have emerged. Can crypto assets become the Ark of Noah?
Cohen's series of warnings release at least three major signals for crypto investors:
The delay in the Fed's policy shift will exacerbate the dollar liquidity tension, and we need to be wary of the 'dollar drought' transmission in the stablecoin market.
Technical adjustments in the U.S. stock market may trigger a widespread decline in risk assets, and the 0.65 correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 still needs to be monitored.
The logic of hard assets under sticky inflation reinforces the long-term allocation value of anti-inflation assets such as gold and Bitcoin.
When Wall Street's 'best money-making machine' starts to build defensive fortifications, it may be the key moment for the crypto market to re-examine asset pricing logic. The upcoming non-farm data and FOMC meeting will serve as a 'stress test field' to validate Cohen's predictions. Crypto investors, please fasten your digital seatbelts!
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