May 15th ETH Market Life and Death Situation:
Ethereum's surge and subsequent drop has completely shattered market sentiment, with a five-minute timeframe plummeting from $2646 to $2565. The MACD has formed a death cross under water, resembling scissors, clearly indicating that the market makers are violently washing positions at a critical point. On-chain monitoring detected a giant whale dumping 28,000 ETH into Binance three hours ago, coinciding with the perpetual contract funding rate soaring to -0.023%, suggesting that the bears are clearly laying in wait.
1. Technical Bloody Game
The RSI on the four-hour chart has dropped to the oversold zone at 38.7, but if the weekly support at 2550 is broken, a chain liquidation could drag the price down to the abyss of 2450 in an instant. The shooting star on the daily chart hangs high, and the KDJ has formed a death cross and is diving downwards; this pattern typically indicates at least a $200 level correction. Even worse, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is stuck at the life-and-death line of 0.024; if it is smashed back below 0.02, the altcoin season will be directly declared over.
2. Three Major Nuclear Alerts Tonight
20:30 U.S. PPI Data: If the previous month-on-month rate of 0.2% dares to soar above 0.5%, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations will directly cool down, and the correlation with the U.S. stock market could kick ETH down below 2500.
The Federal Reserve meeting minutes at midnight: If any keywords like "sticky inflation" or "delayed interest rate cuts" appear, the market will immediately enter bloodbath mode.
The final countdown for Ethereum ETF: If the SEC gives another dovish signal, institutions have their ammunition ready to dump — the Grayscale ETHE fund's premium rate is only 12% left, and these guys are just waiting to unload.
3. Market Maker's Hidden Cards Revealed
On-chain data shows that there is a pile of stop-loss orders worth $420 million accumulated in the 2550-2580 range; the market makers will definitely kill off this batch of stop-losses before they pump the price. For those who are active, remember to add 10% to your position every $50 drop below 2550, with a total position not exceeding 50%. Friendly players should focus on the 2600 round number; if the five-minute level breaks out with volume here, we could see a rebound to 2650, but if it is pushed back by the mid-line, immediately pursue the short position, with a stop-loss of $50 being enough to take profit.
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