_Technical Analysis_
1. _Price Status_:
• _Bollinger Band Analysis_: Price broke above the upper band at 0.00456 reaching 127%, creating a new high in the past 14 days, but the narrowing band indicates a potential reversal
• _MA200 Deviation_: 67% epic deviation, exceeding the historical extreme of May 2024 (58%)
• _Holding Cost Deviation_: 57.7% deviation suggests 97% of holding addresses are in profit, critical point of strong selling pressure
2. _Market Strength and Weakness_:
• _Volume-Price Divergence_: 24-hour volume increased by 1.64 times but failed to break the previous high of 0.0049, 8-hour candlestick shows a shooting star
• _Position Changes_: 1-hour position decreased by 0.82% alongside a price drop of 14.19%, significant distribution by main forces at high levels
• _Long-Short Squeeze_: Smart money long-short ratio 2.37→2.16, short contracts surged by 8.8% in a single day
3. _Key Positions_:
• _Support Level_: 0.0043 (historical transaction dense zone, 21.43% concentration of chips)
• _Resistance Level_: 0.0049 (May 14 high + second pressure area of spot transaction distribution)
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_Market Cycle Analysis_
1. _Current Cycle_: End of bull market accelerating towards peak phase, MA200 and price forming a 'death funnel', RSI top divergence continues for 3 cycles
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_Trading Strategy_
1. _Specific Points_:
• Entry Point: 0.0049 (previous high resistance + psychological integer level)
• Stop Loss: 0.0052 (3% margin for error above historical high)
• Target: 0.0043 (support level + main cost area)
• Profit and Loss Ratio: 1:4.3 (Risk-Return Ratio = (0.0049-0.0043)/(0.0052-0.0049)=0.0006/0.0003)
2. _Risk Warning_:
• Extreme Market Conditions: Market cap only 104 million, over 80% control by major players
• Contract Risk: OI/Market Cap ratio reaches 800%, extremely high risk of chain liquidation
• Operation Warning: Avoid using leverage greater than 5x, suggest building positions in batches
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$HIPPO
