Fully liquidate and wait—this wave of market has basically reached its target.
BTC has recently shown significant stagnation. Although it surged to the target area the day before yesterday, yesterday's spike was close to the $100,000 level. Today there is a rebound, but the momentum is not strong; the technical target range has basically been touched (106,000-108,000). Looking at the timing, with tomorrow (May 15th) approaching, this phase of the market is nearing its end.
ETH also surged to around $2730 today; although it did not fully reach the $2800 target, it is already close to the top in a broader sense, just a step away. Whether to liquidate now should not depend on the price but rather on your mindset: if you believe the bull market is still ahead, you can choose to hold; if you agree with my assessment but are reluctant to sell everything, then keep 30% of your position to continue observing.
In this wave, we seek to escape the peak in stages, rather than fantasizing about always buying at the lowest and selling at the highest. As long as this operation can control risk and successfully realize profits, long-term compounding is truly valuable.
BTC: Key support lost may lead to a downward test.
Currently, BTC is in a state of weakening upward momentum, and the $100,000 level has not been effectively held. If today's market falls below this important psychological support, it may drop to the $96,000-$98,000 range.
If the market further weakens, it may retest the $92,000-$96,000 range, and in extreme cases, it could even reach $90,000.
Key short-term support to focus on within the day: $100,000-$101,000.
ETH: Phase goal achieved, pullback pressure gradually emerging.
Since judging that ETH's bottom was at $1400 at the end of last year, this wave's upward target range has been $2600-$2800.
As it stands, this target has basically been achieved, and today's push to $2730 is within expectations.
While the probability of further upward movement in the subsequent market cannot be completely ruled out, the space has become extremely limited, and it is not worth taking systemic risks for a few points of profit.
The expected pullback is as follows: normal pullback: 10%-20%, target range about $2320-$2480; if market sentiment remains weak: a drop of 20%-30% is expected, with the target range falling between $2000-$2200. The bottom of this pullback will not fall below $1800.
Altcoins: Fully liquidate, waiting for new opportunities after correction.
We have cleared all positions in this round of altcoin operations, with the strategy being to wait for mainstream coins to complete their corrections before making new layouts.
In the future, we will re-enter potentially promising altcoins based on the confirmation of support for BTC and ETH. The top of the market is approaching; the focus now is on risk control rather than fantasizing about the continuation of the bull market.
In conclusion: Escaping the peak is not about prediction, but about discipline.
Regardless of whether there is a final 'tail' in this wave of market, the main upward target has been achieved. We are not aiming to pinpoint the timing perfectly but to seize every opportunity to realize profits and control the risk of potential losses.
The market is not afraid of missing out, but rather of being greedy. If there is a pullback after liquidation, it becomes the best next opportunity. Holding onto profits while waiting for a pullback is more practical than chasing the market and fantasizing about the continuation of the bull market.