NATO negotiators are advancing a plan aimed at achieving 5% of GDP for defense spending by 2032, and the alliance has distributed detailed 'capability lists' to member government.
NATO allies have begun to draw up an agreement aimed at significantly increasing defense spending to relieve pressure from Trump. Trump has asked NATO allies to allocate 5% of their economic output to military spending.
According to informed diplomats, prior to the NATO summit held in June in The Hague, negotiators from the military alliance are advancing a plan aimed at achieving 5% of GDP for defense and defense-related spending by 2032. NATO foreign ministers will discuss this initiative at a meeting in Antalya, Turkey, this Wednesday and Thursday.
The timing of this Mediterranean meeting coincides with the Trump administration's strong push to end the Ukraine conflict that has lasted for more than three years. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that he is prepared to meet face-to-face with Putin in Istanbul this Thursday local time, and both sides are working towards a ceasefire agreement. However, the Russian leader has not indicated whether he will attend.
The massive defense spending agreement requested by Trump—which none of NATO's 32 member countries (including the U.S.) have met—would mark the largest increase in spending among Western allies since the end of the Cold War.
Since his first term, Trump has accused allies of failing to reach the long-standing 2% spending threshold. According to NATO's annual report in April, eight of the 32 allies have yet to reach the 2% spending level.
According to senior diplomats who discussed the closed-door talks anonymously, NATO Secretary General Rutte is pushing for allies to agree to raise defense spending to 3.5% of GDP over the next seven years, plus an additional 1.5% for broader defense-related spending.
Last month, Rutte stated to reporters in the United States that the goal of the Hague summit—the first NATO summit after Trump's return to the White House—will be to rebalance spending within the alliance.
Diplomats indicated that ministers will discuss which expenditures can be counted towards the 1.5% portion, including areas such as military mobility, dual-use materials, and cybersecurity, adding that discussions are still in the preliminary stages. It is currently unclear whether this portion includes existing spending or if new commitments are required.
Rutte's proposal includes a regular and strict verification mechanism, which differs from the more relaxed targets currently set by allies. One senior European diplomat stated that significantly increasing spending within the discussed timeframe will be a huge challenge, but many now believe that this effort is necessary to send a strong signal to the Kremlin.
Some NATO member countries, including Italy and Spain, have only recently announced that they have reached the 2% level. According to informed sources, all member countries are expected to reach the old benchmark before the summit.
The alliance has distributed detailed, highly confidential lists of weapons and other capabilities to member government, with defense ministers set to discuss these lists in Brussels this Wednesday. According to informed sources, these lists, known as 'capability targets', have been widely accepted by allies and may be signed at the defense ministers' meeting in Brussels in early June.
According to European diplomats, this summit is expected to be shorter than previous meetings, focusing on spending and industrial development, with a brief statement to be released at the end. One diplomat indicated that the theme will be the alliance itself, rather than Ukraine's future within the alliance.
Trump's skeptical attitude towards Ukraine's NATO membership has temporarily ruled out this possibility. According to informed sources, Rutte's other initiative involves a complete reform of the alliance's efficiency and internal governance. One person stated that this reform effort may gain Trump's approval. #代币发射平台竞争加剧
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