Whether one can make money is understood differently by everyone. If you ask someone making money, they will definitely say they can earn; if you ask someone losing money, they will definitely complain. I entered the circle in 2016 with a capital of 400,000, and after the crash in 2017, I had less than 100,000 left. Later, I constantly bought BTC and ETH spot using off-exchange funds, occasionally playing some swings (which proved that excess returns were not much, and it's better to spend energy researching off-exchange earnings). I calculated that the total input was about 50, roughly, I can't remember clearly. During the last bull market, I made about 1400 (looking back, there was still some luck involved). Later, thinking I was invincible, I successfully escaped the top but couldn’t sit still during the downturn and went to contracts, losing my capital until only 400 remained. It wasn't until now that I have regained the capital size of 21 years. Therefore, I oppose anyone playing contracts. Although I made money and might be suspected of standing and speaking without pain, I believe that because of such ups and downs, I have more of a voice. Let's still speak some truth and try to stand from an objective and rational perspective.
If you want to change your life from now on, please make sure to finish what I'm about to say next; I will reveal for the first time the method to start from zero and reach tens of millions.
In fact, to judge if someone is really a big boss, what you see is mostly illusion. Money can be faked; cars and houses may also be rented. Yachts and villas might not belong to them. There are many such people in Shenzhen. Don't think just because someone lives in a villa that they are impressive. I've seen too many come to borrow money from me, often pretending. But one thing that cannot be faked is the way they speak, their analytical thinking. The simplest way to judge is to see if they can describe a problem in the shortest possible way. Do they have the ability to simplify complex issues? If they talk to you for a long time and make things more complex and obscure, they are most likely inexperienced or simply poor in expression.
(Friendly reminder: If you made money in the crypto world, stay away from those so-called big bosses in other industries, because their false prosperity is all propped up, while you have real money. Don't get fooled into investing in this or that, thinking you've become a capitalist. Just stay honest and don't ask me how I know this.)
Can one make money in the crypto world? Let me analyze it from the perspective of a pure newcomer from outside the circle, and you will understand. You don't need to understand what BTC is, what decentralization is, what blockchain is, what cross-chain bridges are, or what Ethereum's state tree is; you don't need to understand any of these. Just simply and brutally view the crypto world as a big casino. Think of BTC as the main gambling hall; ETH, DOGE, SOL, and various altcoins are like games in this casino similar to roulette and baccarat. Doesn't this make it easier to understand? Holding BTC is equivalent to holding shares in this casino. A certain game category in the casino may lose money, but do you think the whole casino can lose money? As long as people keep gambling, the shares you hold become more valuable. As long as the casino is still operating normally, and the Bitcoin casino operates 24 hours a day, without requiring you to pay management fees, rent, or utilities, doesn't that sound like bliss? Moreover, to earn more, doesn’t the casino need more people to gamble? Doesn't it need advertising? What kind of advertising is the most effective? Functionality or technological breakthroughs? No, none of those. The best advertisement is to raise prices, create wealth myths, and have people from all over the world rush to queue up to give you money. I can't think of a reason why such a business could lead to heavy losses.
So, in summary, do you still think you can't make money in the crypto world? As long as your intelligence level is normal and you don't want to get rich overnight, wanting to be a middle-class person with a little cash is actually easier than you think; just come in and buy mindlessly, it's that simple.
One cannot want everything and still be afraid. The worry is that aside from average profits, you also want excess returns; that requires a certain level of understanding, and your risks will correspondingly increase. Buying Bitcoin mindlessly, in my opinion, does not require much understanding. But if you want to buy other coins to outperform Bitcoin, that requires considerable skill. Understanding, experience, and a grasp of the market are indispensable.
I'm not unaware of how to play altcoins; I believe I know how to play them better than 90% of the big names on Zhihu. But now that I've calmed down, I know I'm no longer that barefoot youth from eight years ago. Every time I take solid steps and rely on time to make money, I gradually find my way; every time I become impatient and want more and faster, fate always knocks me down again. So I've come to realize, do I really need to be that anxious? I've reached a height that most people can't achieve in their lifetime. I could return to my small county and live a lazy life; do I really need to gamble everything again? Are those things what I truly need? Just like Buffett said, the stupidest thing in the world is to exchange what you need for what you don't need, referring to the story of a few Nobel laureates who put their tens of billions of dollars into their own quantitative funds and ultimately went bankrupt. Of course, that's another story and belongs to advanced courses, but I hope to bring some reflection for your future.
Finally, let's talk about some real work regarding how small capital can grow rapidly (note that the small capital I'm referring to here is not hundreds of thousands, but rather a few thousand, tens of thousands, or even zero). A common question from community partners is: Captain, I don't want to play contracts, but what should I do if I don't have much capital?
No matter in which financial market, discussing leverage with newcomers is always a politically incorrect thing, because if you make money, you won't get a dime more, and if you lose, the responsibility is huge. Moreover, newcomers just entering the circle have an incomplete understanding and lack a basic respect for the market, making it easy to fall into traps. That's why I rarely publicly talk about how to leverage.
However, if you are a small investor wanting to reach the A8 level within a cycle, no matter how good you are, it's almost impossible to achieve without leveraging or engaging in some speculation. How to leverage is very important; how to add, how much to add, and when to add all require skill. Adding too early can easily lead to cash flow breakage, while adding too late increases costs with no profit—these are all issues. Moreover, I only suggest adding off-exchange leverage; do not borrow coins on exchanges or play contracts, as the risks are very high. For example, when BTC broke below 20k, I told my community members to leverage. Many people entered at 17,000, 18,000, or 19,000, and when it dropped to 15,000, many began to doubt, and some even cursed, claiming I was cutting leeks and that BTC was a scam. I know I can't explain; I can only prove it with time. What was the result? Those who listened to me and leveraged to buy at the bottom had a cost of about 22,000, while those who didn't had a cost of about 28,000. When the altcoins dropped sharply to S, I called it the bottom, but many still hesitated to enter. Looking back now, those who bought at the bottom have either broken even or doubled their investments, while those who didn’t are still waiting to break even. This is the gap. Opportunity knocks, and the hints are given, but if you can't grasp it, that's your fate. This round conservatively estimated, combined with the subsequent altcoin market, students who leveraged with me have returns that are hard to be below 20 times. In a bull market, over 20 times—what more could you want? One must not be too greedy. As for how to leverage and how to do it with low risk, if fate allows, I will tell you without reservation.
I've finished speaking. I’ve discussed opportunities and pointed out risks. As for how to act, it's up to personal judgment. Honestly, I still hope newcomers don’t casually step into this circle. Although what I’ve said seems simple, if your experience and understanding haven’t reached that level, you won’t be able to execute it. If no one guides you, getting hurt a bit would be considered fortunate; in more severe cases, it could lead to being on the rooftop. Don’t think those who lose everything and go to the rooftop are just stories; Shenzhen sends off a few people every year. I sincerely wish everyone a good ending.
