1. Market news: A dual game of policy and data
1. CPI data slightly below expectations: The US April CPI rose 2.3% year-on-year (expected 2.4%), with core CPI up 0.5% year-on-year, showing that inflation pressure is moderating but still above the Federal Reserve's target. Although the data alleviated concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes, Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that 'more evidence is needed to confirm inflation is under control,' leading to a delay in market interest rate cut expectations until September.
2. Bitcoin holds the 100,000 mark: Bitcoin reached a high of $105,700 yesterday before falling back to the $102,000-$103,000 range, with a 24-hour decline of 1.6%. The total liquidation amount exceeded $800 million (with long positions accounting for 65%). Ethereum also retraced to around $2,450, but XRP rose by 5%, indicating increasing market differentiation.
3. Trump family's expansion in the crypto space:
- The Trump family's controlled 'American Bitcoin' company merges with Gryphon Digital Mining for a public listing, with GRYP's stock price soaring 171% in a single day, reflecting market enthusiasm for Trump's policy dividends;
- 'Satoshi Holdings,' founded by Trump's advisor David Bailey, is going public, aiming to establish a global Bitcoin reserve network and promote the securitization of Bitcoin.
2. Key driving factors analysis
1. The dual impact of CPI data on the crypto market:
- Short-term bullish: Inflation cooling strengthens interest rate cut expectations, the US dollar index drops to 98.5, and risk asset valuations recover;
- Potential bearish factors: The Federal Reserve remains cautious, coupled with the lagging effects of the US-China tariff adjustments (April data does not fully reflect tariff costs), the market may face repeated policy shocks.
2. Trump's policy catalysis:
- The Trump family accelerates its layout in the crypto industry through capital operations, releasing signals of policy easing and attracting traditional capital inflows;
- Market expectations are that if Trump is re-elected, he may further relax crypto regulations and promote Bitcoin's inclusion in national strategic reserves, reinforcing the 'digital gold' narrative.
3. Technical aspects and fund flows:
- Bitcoin key levels: Support at $100,000 (psychological level), $97,800 (breakthrough becomes support); resistance at $105,000 (previous high), $109,350 (technical selling pressure area). RSI (65) is near overbought territory, requiring a short-term pullback to gain strength;
- Capital support: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $3.3 billion in one week, with BlackRock's IBIT recording net inflows exceeding $5 billion for 20 consecutive days, and institutional holdings rising to 33%, while exchange inventory fell to a new low since 2018.
3. Strategies and risk warnings for the next 24 hours
- Bitcoin: If it stabilizes at $102,000-$103,100, one can consider light long positions, targeting $104,000-$105,000; falling below $100,000 should trigger a stop-loss and watch for the effectiveness of the $97,800 support;
- Ethereum: Stabilizing around $2,600 after a pullback can allow for long positions, targeting above $2,660; a drop below $2,450 requires caution for accelerated pullbacks.
- Shorting is not recommended; if you really want to short, consider light positions at the upper resistance levels.
Interactive topic:
Do you think the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in July or September? Feel free to leave a comment for discussion!
