#CryptoCPIWatch In April 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the USA recorded the following highlights:

Monthly change: +0.2% (after a decrease of 0.1% in March)

Annual inflation (headline): +2.3% over 12 months, the lowest since 2019

Core CPI (excluding food and energy): +2.8% over 12 months, stable compared to March

Context points and implications

1. Tariffs and trade war:

Although there has been a 90-day ceasefire in the US-China trade war, a general tariff of 10% on imports remains, which is expected to put pressure on prices in the coming months.

2. Fed's position:

With headline inflation already close to the 2% target and core still at 2.8%, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates stable in the short term and adopt a patient stance before beginning gradual cuts later in the year.

3. Market reaction:

The dollar weakened, stock futures rose, and expectations for cuts in the US Selic rate were reduced from over 100 bps to about 56 bps in 2025. This increased the appetite for risk in the very short term.

What to watch ahead

Tariff pressures will continue to create a “lag” in the inflationary impact — we will see stronger pass-throughs of imported inputs to consumers in the second half.

Services and shelter (housing) are still the components that most support the CPI, maintaining the “inflation-sticky” in segments sensitive to wages and rents.

Risk and crypto markets: contained inflation and the prospect of stable/declining interest rates tend to favor higher-risk assets, including crypto, but a potential increase in tariffs could alter this scenario.

In summary, the April “CPI watch” shows moderate inflation, giving the Fed room to wait for clearer signals before further loosening monetary policy. This maintains a positive bias for risk in the short term, but with heightened attention to the impact of tariffs and energy in the coming months.