Bitcoin is about to break through $12k: Dragon King's analysis and de-risking strategy.
$BTC As of May 13, 2025, the BTC price breaks through the $100,000 mark under multiple favorable factors, reaching a high of $105,720, and then falls back to around $102,600 due to short-term capital diversion caused by the U.S.-China tariff agreement. The current market focus is on the key target of $120,000, with the possibility of breaking through and the potential risks becoming core issues of concern for investors.
Core driving factors for breaking $120,000: macro policy catalyst: Trump effect and global trade easing.
Trump policy dividends: The U.S. and the U.K. reached a trade agreement, suspending 24% additional tariffs, combined with Trump's indication that U.S.-China trade negotiations may make progress, significantly increasing market risk appetite. Historical data shows that Trump's suspension of tariffs previously led to a 7% surge in BTC in a single day.
Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations: If the U.S. April CPI data released on May 13 is lower than expected, it may strengthen the Fed's interest rate cut signal, further releasing liquidity and pushing BTC upward.
Institutional funds continue to pour in.
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net inflow of $4.6 billion in the past two weeks, with BlackRock and Fidelity's ETF assets under management reaching $16 billion and $9.5 billion respectively, providing long-term liquidity support for BTC.
Morgan Stanley and other Wall Street institutions are accelerating their layout in crypto assets, planning to launch crypto trading services in 2026 to attract traditional capital.
On-chain data supports demand growth.
Realized cap reaches a historic high of $889 billion, indicating strong inflows; short-term holders' (STH) profit-taking transactions have surged, with market sentiment shifting from pessimism to optimism.
Long-term holders (LTH) continue to increase holdings, with the number of BTC that haven't moved for over 155 days increasing by 254,000, indicating solid long-term confidence.
Technical breakout signals.
After BTC breaks the resistance level of $102,000, it enters an upward channel, with MACD and RSI indicators showing bullish momentum, targeting $110,000 in the short term, and after breaking, it is expected to accelerate toward $120,000.
Potential risks and challenges.
Short-term technical resistance and market sentiment divergence.
$106,000 'death boundary': This position has a dense liquidation zone; if it fails to break effectively, it may trigger $3.4 billion in long liquidation, causing prices to pull back to the $97,000-$99,000 range.
Concentration risk in institutional holdings: MicroStrategy holds 1.19 million BTC, accounting for 6% of the circulation, and its selling expectations may suppress short-term prices.
Disturbances in macroeconomic variables.
CPI data and the dollar index: If April CPI rebounds beyond expectations, a stronger dollar may suppress BTC's gains; conversely, cooling inflation may push BTC to break $105,000.
Uncertainty in U.S.-China trade negotiations: Details of the agreement are unclear; if subsequent negotiations hit a snag, market sentiment may reverse.
Regulatory and liquidity risks.
Delays in the SEC's approval of crypto ETFs like Solana may suppress market enthusiasm.
On-chain data shows that the number of addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC has decreased by 12, with some whales choosing to take profits, assessing the path of breaking $120,000.
Optimistic scenario: CPI data lower than expected + clear interest rate cut signal from the Federal Reserve, after BTC stabilizes at $105,000, institutional funds accelerate inflow, pushing the price to break $120,000 before the end of June.
Cautious scenario: CPI rebound + U.S.-China negotiation deadlock, BTC testing the $97,000 support, entering a range of $90,000 to $110,000, with the break of $120,000 delayed until Q4 2025.
Dragon King's de-risking strategy and operational suggestions.
Investors with different holding situations: short-term trapped investors.
Stop-loss strategy: If it falls below $100,000 support, it is recommended to partially stop-loss, retaining 50% of the position to wait for a rebound.
Hedging tools: Buy put options with a strike price of $95,000 or short BTC perpetual contracts to hedge downside risk.
Long-term holders.
Hold firmly: Ignore short-term fluctuations, focus on BTC as a long-term narrative of 'cross-border value transfer protocol,' targeting $200,000 by 2030.
Dollar-cost averaging optimization: When a pullback occurs below $95,000, gradually increase positions by 5%-10%.
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$BTC
