Why the Dragon King thinks ETH will crash
Money has become expensive, and everyone is afraid to take risks
The Federal Reserve is not lowering interest rates, the dollar is appreciating, US bond yields are rising, and investors are rushing to buy government bonds and gold, leading to a frenzied sell-off of high-risk assets like ETH. Trump's tariff policies and high inflation expectations in the US make people feel that the economy is about to stagnate, money is losing value, and they are even less willing to invest in cryptocurrencies.
Policy suppression, institutional withdrawal
The US SEC requires that ETH spot ETFs cannot participate in staking rewards, leading Grayscale to dump ETH, with a maximum sell-off of $73.6 million in one day, causing institutional confidence to collapse.
The annualized yield for staking ETH is only 3.12%, lower than competitors like Solana, causing Middle Eastern tycoons and BlackRock to switch to high-yield projects.
Technical market collapse, large holders frantically selling
ETH price fell below the cost price of $1500, long-term holders' 'diamond hands' dropped from 63% to 55%, while short-term players are frantically cutting losses. The staking rate reached 27.85%, but the price fell below the cost line, and miners and validators face loss liquidation. A giant whale leveraged 50 times to short, causing a chain liquidation of 160,000 ETH worth $300 million.
The ecological status is at risk
Public chains like Solana are stealing users: Solana has 2 million daily active users, with transaction volume soaring by 350%, while ETH's active addresses decreased by 470,000. Layer 2 solutions like Arbitrum are siphoning off mainnet traffic, and Uniswap v4 has moved to other chains, leaving ETH's mainnet with only settlement functions, and revenue plummeting by 99%.
Signs of a crash: signals to run away
A sudden influx of ETH into exchanges: If more than 500,000 ETH (about $900 million) is transferred to exchanges in a single day, it indicates that large holders are about to sell.
Staking unlock: After the upgrade, the staking lock-up period is shortened to 6 days, and a large amount of ETH may be redeemed and sold.
Key technical levels broken: prices falling below the psychological barrier of $1600 or the miner shutdown price of $1412 are both dangerous signals.
Liquidation risk: If ETH drops to $1200, DeFi platforms will forcibly liquidate $336 million in loans, triggering a larger collapse.
The Dragon King teaches you how to save yourself
Quickly stop losses
If it falls below $1600, sell 50% of the position first; if it drops to $1412, liquidate the entire position. Buy put options for hedging: spend 5% to buy put options with a strike price of $1400 while selling call options at $1800 to reduce costs.
Arbitrage operations
ETH/BTC grid trading: buy and sell in 20 intervals between the exchange rate of 0.016-0.020, investing 5% of funds each time to profit from exchange rate fluctuations, with annualized returns of 15%-25%.
Cross-chain asset swap: transfer part of your ETH to the Solana chain to participate in staking (annualized 5.2%) or liquidity mining.
Optimize staking: switch to liquid staking (like Lido), with an annualized return of 3.8%, and you can exit at any time. Then stake LST tokens and add MEV income, raising the overall annualized return to 6%-8%.
Long-term layout: focus on the RWA track (such as tokenized government bonds, gold), if ETH integrates such assets, you can buy into related projects at the bottom. Pay attention to the dynamics of the Trump administration; if they create a 'national digital asset reserve', ETH may rebound.
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$ETH
