If tariffs are further downgraded, the Federal Reserve may be expected to cut interest rates. Current growth pressures are not reflected; April's non-farm payrolls remain strong, and the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs also maintain resilience. Even if the Federal Reserve wants to respond preemptively, there is not enough reason to do so, especially since Powell's term ends in May next year, and the risk of overreacting is significant. Therefore, in balancing the 'dilemma' between inflation and growth, the Federal Reserve is more likely to choose to observe rather than 'take the initiative.' However, if subsequent tariff risks can be further downgraded, the Federal Reserve would have the opportunity to cut interest rates again in the third or fourth quarter to ease growth pressures at that time.#降息预期