When Ethereum begins to surpass Bitcoin, has the bell for Altcoin Season truly rung, or is it yet another illusion of 'only rising in popularity, not in wealth'?
On the morning of May 11, a major piece of news broke the calm in the crypto market—Trump announced significant progress in US-China trade negotiations, alleviating risk aversion and causing a collective rebound in risk assets. The market's biggest focus was Ethereum (ETH) briefly breaking through $2600, with short-term gains even outpacing Bitcoin, becoming the new 'leader' of the market. Meanwhile, the CMC altcoin season index soared to 40, reaching a new high in nearly 90 days, and the voices proclaiming 'Altcoin Season is coming' filled the market once again.
But the question is, has this altcoin season really arrived? Or is it yet another old dream replayed?
1. ETH leads the charge, the entire market is agitated.
Ethereum's unusual movement broke the recent dull pattern of Bitcoin's 'one-man show.' ETH not only regained a key technical level in price but, more importantly, it drove a series of altcoins to rise in sync. A number of mid and small cap coins saw increases of over 20% within 24 hours, and some investors even shouted in the community: 'The altcoin season of 2025 has arrived!'
Some optimistic analysts believe this round of market dynamics has sustainability. For example, Mister Crypto believes that in the next 3 to 6 months, altcoins may enter a 'return explosion period,' with 40% daily increases becoming commonplace. Notable technical analyst Moustache also stated that the current market structure is extremely similar to that of 2016 and 2020, asserting that the Altcoin Season of 2025 has officially begun.
This viewpoint is backed by data: the CMC altcoin season index rebounded to 40, the first time in three months it has approached the 'critical value for altcoin season explosion'; meanwhile, Bitcoin's recent sideways movement has provided a 'breathing window' for ETH and altcoins' price performance.
2. The cautious faction does not buy the story: the rise lacks soul, and capital is still 'running away.'
But the market is never one-sided. In analyst 2Lambroz's view, this round of price increase resembles a 'technical rebound of capital rotation' rather than a true structural bull market. He pointed out: 'Retail investors have not returned, and the narrative has not taken hold.' Unlike in 2021, the current market lacks a strong consensus driving force, with investors leaning more towards short-term arbitrage instead of long-term holding.
More pessimistic is commentator Rekt Fencer, who sarcastically said, 'You say this is altcoin season? Most altcoins have already dropped 90% since last December, and recently rebounded 10%. Is this considered a reversal?' He added that Bitcoin currently maintains over 54% market dominance, with no signs of 'altcoin dominance' in sight, and institutions are still betting on Bitcoin, resulting in very low capital rotation efficiency.
This means that even if ETH rises, the money may not necessarily rotate into altcoins.
3. Variable observation: a three-way game of technology, macroeconomics, and sentiment.
In fact, whether an altcoin season has truly arrived is not based on a day or two of price increases, but rather requires analysis of multiple core variables.
1. Bitcoin's dominance (BTC Dominance)
Bitcoin's dominance rate is as high as 54%, which is a very crucial 'roadblock for altcoin season.' Historical data shows that only when this indicator falls below 45% does the market truly enter a structural rebound of 'altcoin dominance.' Although ETH has risen, BTC's capital absorption effect remains unbreakable.
2. Warming macro variables
Trump's remarks on easing US-China trade tensions and the alleviation of India-Pakistan geopolitical tensions have indeed boosted risk appetite. This is favorable for assets including cryptocurrencies, stocks, and meme coins. However, these variables are not sustainable and are easily reversed by the next black swan event. What truly determines the fate of altcoins is still the internal structure and narrative.
3. Retail investor sentiment and on-chain behavior
Currently, on-chain data shows that the activity level of retail investor wallets is still over 60% lower than the peak during the 2021 bull market. Although on-chain transaction volume and wallet creation numbers have shown signs of recovery, they are far from the popularity needed for a real bull market.
4. How do smart people act? Not by chasing prices, but by laying out data.
In such a stage of market uncertainty, chasing prices is clearly not the optimal strategy. Instead, effectively using AI and data tools to quietly wait for a clear trend is key.
For example, on [Mlion.ai], users can:
Quickly check the ETH and BTC dominance correlation model to determine whether there are signs of true capital rotation.
Use AI-generated altcoin capital flow reports to identify coins being quietly accumulated by major players.
Utilize sentiment analysis models to track retail entry enthusiasm and changes in social media topics.
Automatically track wallet behavior of organizations to detect trend-switching signals in advance.
These tools not only save time but more importantly, allow you to see what the market is trading, why it's trading, and whether it can continue to trade.
5. Conclusion: A true 'altcoin season' is not a 40% surge, but a structural consensus.
Ethereum's strong performance has undoubtedly activated the long-silent altcoin market, but whether this means 'Altcoin Season' has truly arrived is still far from conclusive.
A true altcoin season must meet three core conditions: the efficiency of capital rotation, stable macroeconomic expectations, and strong narrative drive. Currently, these three elements are not yet in place, and we may be in a gray area between bull and bear markets.
But it is precisely at this stage that the key moment for laying out future opportunities arises.
Now, let’s start talking with data, rather than following emotions. Open Mlion.ai and take a look at which sectors have truly begun to 'build momentum' logically.
Disclaimer: The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market carries risks; enter the market with caution.
