While everyone is still worried about whether Bitcoin has already 'overheated', one on-chain data point after another, technical patterns, and macro trends are quietly sending the same signal: Bitcoin's target is no longer to return to the $110,000 high, but rather to aim for $140,000 or even higher.
In the past 24 hours, although BTC has slightly adjusted by 1.4%, from multiple dimensions, this is merely a 'tactical breather' on the way up. Capital, sentiment, structure, and behavior—all point to a comprehensive siege by the bulls. The following six signals are sketching a new Bitcoin upward cycle blueprint, and what you are seeing now may just be the beginning.
1. ETF frenzy: $2.9 billion inflow, creating explosive accumulation in just two weeks.
The performance of the spot Bitcoin ETF has once again outpaced the price increase. In the past two weeks, these institutional investment products have seen a net inflow of $2.9 billion, making them one of the strongest forces driving Bitcoin since the beginning of the year.
Looking back to early 2024, after the ETF was launched, net inflows exceeded $8.5 billion in just one month, while Bitcoin skyrocketed from $67,000 to $109,000 during the same period. If this historical trajectory continues, the sustained strength of ETF inflow data could very likely mean Bitcoin will reapproach historical highs in the coming weeks, opening a new phase of 'price discovery'.
Data on this type of capital behavior is an important dimension that Mlion.ai's AI Daily and ETF monitoring module can provide. For ordinary users, capturing such subtle funding trends can greatly enhance the success rate of mid-term judgments.
2. Whales return: Institutions continue to increase positions, with the on-chain ATS trend score maxed out.
According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin's current accumulation trend score (ATS) has reached a perfect 1.0. This usually indicates that nearly all types of wallets are shifting from a distribution mode to an accumulation mode. In particular, the group holding 10 to 10,000 BTC has collectively accumulated 83,105 BTC in the past 30 days.
Such data was seen once in October 2024, when Trump was leading in the polls, and Bitcoin soared from $67,000 to $108,000, a nearly 60% increase. This type of behavior often represents a 'deeply convinced' firm accumulation signal, rather than a short-term emotional drive.
Utilizing Mlion.ai's on-chain address tracking and whale behavior analysis, one can further track the dynamics of these wallets' accumulation and reduction, providing strategic basis for identifying the next strong support range.
3. Exchange BTC balances drop to a six-year low: Investors' 'hold tight' sentiment is significantly enhanced.
As of May 15, the global exchange Bitcoin balance has dropped to 2.44 million, the lowest level since 2018. Over the past 30 days, more than 110,000 Bitcoins have flowed out of exchanges.
This means more investors are choosing to transfer assets to self-custody wallets, indicating their high confidence in mid- to long-term rises and their unwillingness to sell in the short term. Such phenomena have often been seen before the bull markets in 2017, 2020, and so on.
4. Network activity surges: Trading volume Z-score breaks crucial points, bullish signals illuminate.
The trading volume Z-score is an important indicator for assessing network activity and market sentiment. This indicator has rapidly risen from a long-term negative zone to nearly 1; once it breaks 1, it signifies that the market enters a high heat phase, often leading to explosive trends in Bitcoin.
Historical data shows that when the Z-score breaks 1, prices tend to enter a rapid rise range, creating a 'lift effect'. This differs from traditional technical indicators, as it reflects real on-chain interactions and network expansiveness.
You can use Mlion.ai's data dashboard to combine Z-scores, address activity, Gas trends, and other dimensions to more accurately judge whether the market temperature has reached a 'critical point'.
5. Rounded bottom pattern established: Technical structure targets directly at $140,000.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's daily chart has completed the construction of a large rounded bottom pattern. The current neckline is at $106,660, and if the daily K-line stabilizes at this level, the pattern will officially confirm its breakout, with the measured increase directly targeting $140,000.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains stable around 70, and has formed a golden cross structure with the SMA, further enhancing the validity of the pattern.
More aggressive trend predictions indicate that the bullish flag on the weekly chart has completed its breakout, with a rebound target potentially pointing to the $150,000 range. This means that if the trend is not unexpectedly interrupted, Bitcoin is likely to transition from consolidation to new highs in the next two quarters.
6. Macro environment friendly: VIX declines, risk appetite fully returns.
Don't overlook the coordination of the external macro market. According to CBOE data, the VIX index has fallen from 55 to 18, entering a clear risk appetite zone. Historical data shows that periods when the VIX is below 18 are often accompanied by collective increases in high-beta assets such as US stocks, gold, and the crypto market.
Risk appetite not only provides a liquidity foundation but also brings about a structural shift in pricing sentiment. Bitcoin, as a 'market sentiment amplifier', tends to perform the most aggressively in such an environment.
Conclusion: How far is Bitcoin from $140,000?
From fund inflows, whale accumulation, on-chain data, network activity, to technical patterns and macro environments—six core signals are strengthening simultaneously, and Bitcoin is once again at the forefront of the bullish wave.
You might be wondering if it's still worth chasing now? Looking back, there were people hesitating at $80,000, and others waiting for a correction at $100,000. Those who truly reaped the benefits are those who understood how to layout in advance and use tools to make accurate judgments.
With the help of Mlion.ai's platform tools, you can simultaneously track whale position changes, monitor ETF inflows in real-time, analyze pattern structures, and even generate exclusive AI research reports, all without needing to be proficient in charts to gain insights into trends.
Disclaimer: The above content is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice! Investing involves risks; proceed with caution!
