#贸易战缓和

I originally thought that the China-US negotiations would at least go through three rounds, but unexpectedly, an important consensus was reached in just one meeting yesterday. This happiness has come too suddenly!

If this situation continues, once the detailed rules are released, barring any surprises, BTC will likely experience another surge, and this time it should easily reach 110,000.

However, that being said, how good can this positive news really be? First of all, the trade deficit of the beautiful country has reached a new high in recent quarters, making it impossible for them not to raise tariffs and continue to be the losing side. The two major countries will also not easily make concessions in trade, so the only substantial progress I can think of will fall into two scenarios: the first is to maintain the previous tax rates (which has a low probability), and the second is to reduce the 145% tariff, possibly ultimately maintaining it between 10% and 30%. Additionally, the tax rate for exports from the beautiful country to the major country will also symbolically increase by about 10% to 30%. Only in this way can business continue.

That said, if this kind of 'substantial positive news' really counts as good news? Therefore, my trading strategy for such positive news is to choose to remain cautious for now and wait for the later momentum to build.