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#FOMCMeeting Here’s the latest on the June 17–18, 2025 FOMC meeting: • Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25–4.50%. Markets (CME FedWatch) show nearly a 99.9% probability of keeping rates unchanged . • Main Considerations: • Geopolitical & Tariff Pressures: The Fed is closely monitoring rising Middle East tensions (with oil price volatility) and new U.S. tariffs, both of which could stoke inflation . • Economic Data: May data reveal cooling inflation (near Fed’s 2% goal), a solid labor market (unemployment ~4.2%), but weakening retail sales and industrial production . • Political Pressure: President Trump has urged the Fed for rate cuts, but the Fed—led by Chair Powell—is maintaining its independent stance . • Dot Plot & Future Guidance: The Fed will release its updated “dot plot” of member projections. Markets expect now only one rate cut in 2025—a downgrade from the previous two . Existing analysis suggests cuts could come no earlier than September, with Wednesday’s meeting likely holding steady . • Press Conference: Chair Powell will detail the decision and outlook in a Wed afternoon press conference, where attention will focus on how the Fed balances inflation, growth, and geopolitical risk .
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