Since the last following trade, I've lost nearly 800u. Even if the win rate is low, there may not be a stop loss set, and I'm just watching the stop loss.
The result cannot reflect the process. In my non-intervention (except for withdrawing profits and setting project stop losses), will I make money or lose money?
Starting from 2025/5/9, I will update this post irregularly (without posting additionally) to record profits and losses, as well as things I want to say.
Currently mainly following these two; may join other following trades later. If full loss compensation is not provided, don’t advertise in the comments; I have no money.
Whether following trades can make money, see the pinned article for strategies. This experiment is to prove that 'following trades must lose'; the consequences are your own responsibility.
2025/5/9
Watching 0 profit, I squeezed into Teacher Hai's project; there is indeed a lack of liquidity recently, but I believe that after mid-May, especially in June, there will be a big market, and liquidity will not be lacking. This arbitrage model with the right exchange rate is feasible.
Stable critical hits were followed before; trend trading now has a threshold of 2000u, and I cannot withdraw profits. But it's okay; isn't it often said to believe in compound interest? I believe that compound interest and stability are in conflict. Time will prove it.
The current strategy combination lacks hedging for trend trading. But counter-trend trading is prone to liquidation, and many following trades will keep adding positions, widening slippage. Let's leave it at that.
2025/5/11
It might be due to a 5% price difference protection; I didn't follow Teacher Hai's INIT long position, and some orders had slippage as high as 4%, leading to some losses. Stable critical hits caught the rise of PNUT, and currently, I don't have a full position and am waiting for opportunities.
It is now clearly lacking liquidity depth; the market is just boring.
2015/5/15
Due to slippage issues, I have been steadily losing while following Teacher Hai. To prevent further wear, I had to stop following for now. Stable critical hits closed long-held positions in BTC and ETH and started shorting.
I have recently been observing some quantitative strategies; they are relatively stable but also profit slowly. Setting project stop losses can prevent losses to the principal while leveraging compound interest. However, time is the greatest leverage, and the market is unpredictable; I have low expectations for this type of quantitative strategy.
2025/5/20
Added three following trades. Hyperliquid Whale Follower has a very low opening frequency, but the profit-loss ratio is good. He's following that previous insider brother. In any case, the wear is relatively small.
Duck God team's strategy is 'profit rolling positions, small losses stop loss'; there is relatively large slippage, but rolling positions generate enough profit. It is rare to find someone with a normal strategy brain (adding positions for profits, not for losses).
Owl trading capital is a gambler. He is actually quite well-known. The strategy is to boldly predict the long and short direction; his philosophy is basically 'one win is enough'. I agree with this; the speculative nature of the cryptocurrency market is too high; you focus on that little profit, while the dealer focuses on your principal.
The current situation is: insider brother + altcoin rolling positions + betting on long and short + trend strategies, a group of people who are not related at all have gathered together. Maybe this combination will work.
Recently, the market has been fluctuating up and down; they might have been spun around, so I specifically left 50u to fill up for them.
2025/5/21
Based on maximum drawdown, I calculated the investment amount using the formula (expected invested funds / (1 + maximum drawdown)).
2025/5/22
Added Dipmaster AI, needle-catching strategy, with a good holding experience.
Hyperliquid Whale Follower has losses; according to the introduction, it has already switched to another whale for following trades.
Current project loss settings (from top to bottom): cannot set, not set, 33%, 18.5%, 33%.
By the way, let’s mention the drawbacks of these following trades (from top to bottom):
There may be cases of non-strict stop losses; refer to 2025/3/28, INJUSDT, -1527u (about -15%), holding time from 3/28 to 4/19. If reopening is due to strategy improvement, there’s no problem;
Gambling (also an advantage);
Huge slippage; might not keep up with trades, position ratio too small, or high slippage;
Whales may deliberately shake off off-market following funds (refer to Chuanmu's tweet on 2025/4/21, 'Those are all robots; they should all die. Normal fans don’t have that technical means.');
In bad states, will slowly lose a lot (85.7%).
2025/5/23
Change:
Owl trading capital increased investment (hedged against stable critical hits);
Hyperliquid Whale Follower project stop loss raised to 20% (following profit increase).
Needle catching strategy starts to profit (strong willingness to take on), bull market. Trump is just a milk dragon; ignore him; the decline is just a buying opportunity.
2025/5/26
Change:
Due to high transaction fees, Hyperliquid Whale Follower project stop loss changed from 20% to 18%;
Added more money to Dipmaster AI; after the unlocking period tomorrow, I will add more, acting as a piggy bank, with an expected project stop loss of 13% (initially narrow stop loss, later adjusted with profit increase);
Owl trading capital slightly increased.
Recently, I always see people in the square talking about compound interest; those who made money in the crypto circle just run away after withdrawing funds, leaving as far as possible. If you want to learn technology, give yourself 2u each time and just open contracts; if you want to make money, look at panic indicators and buy BTC spot during a bear market.
2025/5/27
Change:
Dipmaster AI acts as a piggy bank, current project stop loss 13%;
End following Hyperliquid Whale Follower; the transaction fees are too high (he has also closed due to this);
Owl trading capital increased investment, preparing to withdraw profits after 300u, increasing project stop loss to 50%;
Duck God team retained for observation; there are signs of a style change (starting to hold positions).
Project stop loss is most suitable for low-risk, low-return types, which can leverage the effect of compound interest;
Withdrawing profits is most suitable for high-risk, high-return types; withdrawing principal is considered 'clearing the game'; set a 50% project stop loss and you can ignore it.
2025/5/28
Change:
End following the Duck God team; followed him because he can hold profits, not losses;
Owl trading capital increased investment, project stop loss changed from 50% to 40%.
Currently mainly following stable critical hits and owl trading capital, hedging against each other, and they happen to be the two largest following traders on Binance (ranked by profit and loss).
I am also simulating other following trades, but they have too few trading days. What’s the point of following those who haven’t been around for a few days?
Due to hedging, I don't have to keep looking at following projects recently. If these two also fail, then Binance's following trading is considered finished.
As for why I don't follow the coin-winning quantitative robots: first, I have no money; second, I only treat low-yield types as temporary savings; how can I withdraw money when he does wave trading? Third, I believe there is no 'long-term stable compound interest' in the crypto circle; it's still the same saying, time is the greatest leverage; let you run a stable strategy for 365 days; what are the dealers eating?
2025/5/29
Change:
Owl trading capital reduced investment by 50u; will add back during drawdown;
Added Turner_magician; should belong to stable critical hits, trading in accordance with the trend. Currently, leverage is fixed at 4x; forgot to set project stop loss (should be set at 33%). Still observing; don’t follow me just because I followed; it’s easy to get liquidated.
2025/5/31
Change:
End following Turner_magician; fortunately, I didn't follow along. This is also why I said in the article to 'wait for a pullback'; really, don’t rush to lose money;
Dipmaster AI following mode adjusted to fixed amount, parameters: 10u per order, project stop loss 18%, trader margin mode, fixed 5x leverage, no position take profit/stop loss, maximum order amount 15%.
When the unpredictable market comes, some following trades reveal their true nature: you know it will rise, I know it will rise; holding on without a stop loss, a needle goes in, and it’s you who gets blown up. I believe there will still be market activity after 6/10, but before the rise, there’s a high probability of liquidating long leverage positions. Shorting will profit; it just depends on whether you dare.
The Dipmaster AI has been changed to a fixed amount because I am very familiar with this type of trading. He opens positions with fixed amounts. Parameters mean: 1. Up to 3 times the position can be added, while opening 8 positions simultaneously; 2. Equivalent to 5 times the original. The actual leverage of fixed ratio is only 1x; I find 5x more comfortable.
However, I invested too little to adapt to extreme market conditions. The most suitable parameters should be: invest 600u, fixed amount 10u, fixed 4x leverage, maximum 10% per order, and nothing else changes (up to 6 times the position can be added, while opening 10 positions simultaneously). The logic is: investment determines how many positions can be opened simultaneously (if there's not enough money, don't open more), leverage determines the multiple relative to the fixed ratio (for example, 1x is the same), and the maximum order amount per trade determines the number of times positions can be added.
Other investment parameters are (all fixed amount 10u, 5x leverage):
Format: investment + maximum order amount
240, 13%; 320, 13%;
400, 10%; 500, 10%; 600, 10%.
↑ I mean, I do not recommend doing this; I am only responsible for my own losses.
The owl trading's PEPE long position stopped loss yesterday (by the way, I just said I wanted to take a break, probably my owl language is not good); the stable critical hit's BTC long position also stopped loss. I'm glad to see the stop-loss operation; after all, the market is what you wait for, the choice (timing to open positions) is greater than effort (holding positions).
2025/6/3
No changes, and nothing much to say.
2025/6/6
Change:
Replace Dipmaster AI with Tuo Wei Wu Yan (Mage Tony);
Owl trading capital decreased investment (needs to allocate some funds);
Stable critical hits project stop loss changed from 33% to 21% (edit: has been changed back to 33%).
Saw a negative post about stable critical hits; still need to verify its authenticity. Currently, I have placed the stop loss at the principal position (edit: the new post has been analyzed, likely false news).
Tuo Wei Wu Yan is Mage Tony's trading account. If you don't know who Mage Tony is, there's nothing I can do. I still haven't figured out the strategy; it's a good time to learn.
2025/6/7
No changes.
Looking at the BTC 1-minute chart; it’s either flat, continuous short candlesticks, or suddenly a long candlestick with volume. This is a serious lack of liquidity depth. Even Teacher Hai has started to give up trading now.
I believe technical analysis is useless in such a market; it can only trade like the owl trading opening a short on DOGE, combining news with trading. If it’s purely doing technical analysis following trades, just not losing money at this time is good. The current range cannot hold, and the subsequent volatility will be very high; something big is coming.
2025/6/10
Change:
Only leave 10u for owl trading;
Continue to follow Dipmaster AI, five times fixed amount settings (see above), project stop loss 20%.
Currently mainly following Mage Tony and stable critical hits; I've withdrawn the margin from the owl trading and won't open positions for a long time.
I will add back the extra 200u when Tony pulls back to 35% (current project stop loss: 40%).
The owl trading strategy is: analyze news and market conditions, and open positions based on actual leverage. Just doing technical analysis is useless; the current market especially illustrates this.
This strategy has also greatly inspired me, which is to trade with a brain: what do you think, what basis do you have, think it through, and just do it. Technical analysis, which is a bit mystical, has various interpretations; only by analyzing the market and news with a brain can one truly feel secure (of course, there are also market returns).
2025/6/14
Change: Dipmaster AI fixed ratio adjusted to 1x.
Hedging didn't work; if the owl trading was still leading the trades, there would be less loss; he's the only one who opened a short.
I don't care about losing money and won't deposit again. The purpose of this experiment is to prove that following trades cannot make money; moreover, I will pick out the best batch of following trades on Binance to let those who think following trades can make money completely give up.
If you still don't believe it, feel free to continue following this article; I will not stop updating before running out.
2025/6/20
No changes. This market is very torturous for trend trading: earn a little and wait, run when it loses, or just come up and lose. High profit-loss ratio + strict stop loss can still lose money in this market.
This does not indicate that this market is evolving and making it 'harder for people to make money'; it only indicates that this market is getting worse: without a profit effect, where does liquidity come from? Without liquidity, can we rely on 'the inherent value of cryptocurrencies'?
Garbage market with garbage trends. No need to take high risks to short altcoins; just buy BTCDOM (Bitcoin market share).
2025/6/22
Change: Removed Dipmaster AI.
I went to trade myself; hedging BTCDOM and ETH in a 2:1 ratio. 8x leverage, adjusting BTCDOM to 16x just for convenience in observing price differences. I want to gather 500u later to specifically open a public domain following trade; on one hand, to set up a chat room; on the other hand, to mock the following trades that can't outperform this combination.
2025/7/1
Change: Stop following stable critical hits because the project stop loss was triggered.
Now there's only Mage Tony left. But it's okay, I saved 500u, opened a public domain trading, and there’s also a chat room. I don't recommend following in; just open a 2:1 BTCDOM and ETH yourself. I mainly use it to look at the profit curve.
I still have some money left; when the time comes, I will consolidate and put it into following trades. I’ll share a post to show the trader's interface when I have time.