This afternoon, I chatted with the 'Arms Market' level 2 trading genius @Luyaoyuan1, and I was envious to the point of tears! Bought it for 16,000 in February, and sold it for 32,000 the day before yesterday. I asked Teacher Lu why he wanted to sell, and he said: 'It just rose too much, I’ve never sold before, wanted to experience the process.' 🤣

Looking back, it really was the top I escaped from. Today, the market has basically retraced 30%-50% from the highest point the day before yesterday. Currently, the price has returned to 18,000; from an investment perspective, the principal is still there, but from a profit perspective, the ROI is not that high anymore.

Looking back at my own operations, since buying in 2022, the highest points were 50,000 and 40,000 the day before yesterday. Nearly 3 years of holding yielded returns of 5X to 8X. At this point, I just want to say, you 'escaped the top' while I 'held my position', we both have a bright future. 🤣

If the sleeping god @0xSleepinRain wasn’t hacked, they should also have a baseline of 3X!

Previously, when chatting with @M21_CAPITAL, we also discussed CSGO-related issues, since there was a time when some blockchain game projects were comparing themselves to CSGO. In fact, after reviewing the overall operation model, I found it quite amusing; the core that allowed CSGO skins to rise wasn’t even understood, it’s not as simple as FPS = FPS, and your project = CSGO.

Not to blow V's trumpet or blacken it, but from the income structure, at least they have a positive cycle; income from opening boxes + income from keys has created a stable revenue stream. Coupled with the user base and global recognition, the commercial value brought by top events like Major and IEM, what can you compare with them?

'Come on, bro, send a knife'

There are trends as well as individual factors when it comes to the development of in-game items from a domestic perspective. Initially, the prices weren't high; back then you could still use IGEX for lotteries, but later, since IGEX was involved in D under domestic policies, the lottery based on small bets in the market turned into trading led by 'BUFF'. Adding the social attributes of items, no one can resist when players in-game say to you, 'Come on bro, send a knife,' or the envious looks you get when holding a Dragon Lore and Titan sticker. At such times, the user's sense of satisfaction is overwhelming, just like playing Tetris, when you feel you're about to lose, you get exactly what you need next, and that immediate satisfaction of clearing lines. Everything is based on the premise that items do not affect game properties, becoming a means of social interaction. The exchange of inventories among friends is also quite joyful. But if skins were to gain attributes, then it would be no different from 'cultivation' games, and there are many typical examples of classic game IPs falling.

'Competitive games, only win or lose'

An extreme zero-sum game for competitive players. As long as it's during the match, whether it's BO3, BO5, or golden time in a tied situation, there will ultimately only be one champion. Many blockchain games, if they go to do FPS competition next, I don’t know what considerations they have, but they want to add a PVE. Please, if I want PVE, I can go play robots to farm, why bother with 'competition'? Just make a PVE setup; isn't that simpler than FPS? Scene, animations, involvement, kill judgments, why complicate things? If you really don't know how to play, just do the simplest, 5V5 or 1V1. Everyone bets the same amount, and the win-lose can just be two-way withdrawal, right? The winner withdraws a portion into a public pool for tournament prize money, and a certain percentage of the prize is taxed for maintenance. Interspersed with activities, competitions, and other factors. It’s like you’re just building a stage; those with skills can naturally make money. Keeping up with the competition can also be quite addictive, insisting on creating so-called bounty tournaments/leagues, or offering rewards for weekly/monthly leaderboards. I understand that leaderboards are for daily activity in the game; I’m not afraid of no one consuming, I’m afraid of no one playing. But it’s not sustainable; in a situation where there isn’t much continuous and stable cash flow income, what’s the point of holding competitions? It’s just a pure waste of money and meaningless.

'Reflection'

When facing various game projects' PUA, first consider a question: how do they make money? If you really haven’t played this type of game, it might be better not to spend money and first try out what they benchmark against, then play their game. New players might not be as clear about the gaming experience as veteran players, but frankly, you know whether you’re having fun or not. The newer players actually have an advantage; whether a game can succeed still comes back to the scene and application. Games like Spaceship, which are supposedly 1.0 blockchain games, everyone knows they’re just a setup; what good thing can come from just logging in daily to shoot once? It’s all about not being the last one left. Isn’t it the same? If a big player sees an opportunity, they invest, and the risk of loss is on them. If you are an ordinary player, I still recommend playing enough to at least know what you’re playing, don’t blindly follow along; think a little about whether the logic can close the loop, rather than just digging, extracting, and selling. The essence of trading is the change in supply and demand relationships; inflation or deflation is just a means of regulation. Either invest the least in the game to provide shovels. For example, just provide the basic tools for new entrants or necessary items for tasks. Or you may be the lucky one; at the same price during card draws, while others draw R, you draw SSR. In such cases, it’s like heaven is letting you break even; instead, sell it directly for some low-value items to combine. Never go for the leaderboard; anyone who spends on ranking in games ends up with no good outcome, unless you’re particularly wealthy and willing to play. The reputation it brings you is only within that WeChat group or guild; guildmates will call you a 'big shot'. But when the curtain falls, the one who loses the most will definitely be you. If you want to make money from games, keeping an eye on the data is essentially watching the supply-demand relationship. You must know what you want to do. If you’re not purely pursuing profit, it’s just an addiction; I suggest you directly play Tencent games or open Steam, where there are hundreds of games to enjoy.