When the expectations of interest rate cuts fall through, the clouds of tariffs linger, and the India-Pakistan conflict escalates, while Trump's remarks frequently stir the market, a bizarre scene unfolds in the financial world — asset prices rise instead of fall, and the bull market arrives without warning. This irrational surge shatters the traditional analytical framework, prompting the question: when all negative factors fail to explain the market trends, is 'no reason' itself the biggest reason?

1. Illogical Rise: A Strange Carnival After All Negative Factors Are Exhausted From the perspective of economics textbooks, the current market environment can be described as 'disastrous': the Federal Reserve remains inactive, global trade frictions continue to escalate, and geopolitical risks are at an all-time high. Yet, the capital market displays an independent trend, with Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 mark and U.S. stocks hitting new highs amid skepticism. This divergence has sparked collective confusion in the market: when traditional benefits like interest rate cuts and economic recovery are absent, what force is driving prices to soar?
The answer may lie in the market's reverse logic. In an era of high information transparency, when all negative news has already been fully priced in by the market, the difference in expectations instead becomes a catalyst for rising prices. Just like when a tech stock's earnings report in 2024 leads to a price increase rather than a drop — because investors had already factored in the worst-case scenario, when reality is not worse, it triggers a buying spree.

2. The Battleground of Long and Short: The Doomsday Carnival of Shorts? The long-short ratio data reveals another layer of truth behind this magical market. When shorts bet heavily on a decline, the market often responds in the most brutal way. Exchange position data shows that the scale of Bitcoin short contracts has surged by 30% recently, which corresponds exactly to the violent price increase — the familiar 'short squeeze' script is playing out again.
Behind this phenomenon is the cruel law of capital games: when most people bet in the same direction, the market will always move in the opposite direction. The 2023 oil treasure incident is an example, where shorts encountered an epic liquidation amidst negative oil prices. Is history repeating itself in the cryptocurrency market now?

3. The Ultimate Paradox of the Market: The Underlying Logic of Irrational Prosperity This illogical bull market is essentially the extreme manifestation of market irrationality. Keynes once proposed the 'beauty contest theory': investors are not choosing the most beautiful but are guessing what others perceive as the most beautiful. When all participants expect a decline, it creates an opportunity for collective misjudgment — those who dare to go long against the trend ultimately become the winners of this mad game.

This irrational prosperity is not coincidental but an inevitable phase of the market cycle. At the end of every bull market, the phenomenon of 'valuation failure' occurs: Tesla's stock price skyrockets by a thousand times during losses, and Bitcoin hits new highs amid regulatory gloom. When fundamental analysis fails, the market enters a purely psychological game phase.

Standing at the crossroads of the magical bull market, traditional analytical frameworks are losing efficacy. Perhaps as Soros said: 'The history of the world economy is a continuous drama based on illusions and lies. To gain wealth, the method is to recognize its illusions, invest in it, and then exit the game before the public recognizes the illusion.' Is this reasonless rise the beginning of madness or the prelude to a crash?#BTC重返10万