#交易故事 #BTC交易

Strategic Thinking on Bitcoin Trading: Balancing Faith and Market Cycles

Last month, I increased my holdings by 0.01 Bitcoin at a price of $85,000, with the decision logic stemming from technical factors and macro resonance. On one hand, the weekly chart shows prices testing the key support zone (between $52,000 and $54,000) after the 2024 halving cycle, with on-chain data indicating that whale addresses are continuously accumulating in this area; on the other hand, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with a weakening dollar index, have rekindled the narrative of the crypto market as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation.

Primarily Long-Term Holding, with Short-Term Trading as a Supplement

My core position (80%) consistently adheres to the principle of "super-cycle holding," as the scarcity of Bitcoin as digital gold has not yet been fully priced in by traditional financial markets. However, I will operate flexibly amid short-term fluctuations: for example, the emotional decline caused by two consecutive weeks of net outflows from US Bitcoin spot ETFs prompted me to allocate 20% of my flexible position for grid trading (with a range set between $52,000 and $63,000), capturing swing profits through automated buying and selling.

Current Market's Dual Contradiction

The Bitcoin market in 2025 displays characteristics of coexisting "strong fundamentals" and "high volatility." Institutional holdings exceeding 25% have boosted liquidity, but the divergence in regulatory policies (such as the implementation of the EU MiCA legislation and bans in some emerging markets) has intensified short-term uncertainty. Therefore, I have adjusted my strategy to: retain the foundational position, use option combinations to hedge against black swan risks, and prioritize hedging over blind increasing of positions when the volatility index (DVOL) in the derivatives market exceeds 75. This dynamic balance serves as a shield against market noise and a tool for capturing long-term value.