#BTC This is a timely and well-researched macro-crypto update that highlights how Bitcoin is reacting to broader economic uncertainty. Here's a summary and a few points to enhance clarity or turn it into a market report or tweet thread:

Headline Summary:

Bitcoin slips to $59.5K ahead of FOMC decision as stagflation fears mount

Key Points:

BTC Price Action:

Dropped below $60K on Binance.

Briefly rallied to $64K on HK ETF news, but quickly retraced.

FOMC Outlook:

95.6% expect no rate change (525–550 bps).

Market now pricing in only 1 rate cut in 2024—down from 6 previously.

Odds of no cuts at all this year now 36% (vs. just 3% four months ago).

Macro Pressure – Stagflation Risk:

GDP slowed to 1.6% in Q1 2024 (vs. 2.2% expected).

Core PCE inflation climbed to 3.7% (from 2.0%).

Powell signals "higher for longer" rate strategy.

Implications for Crypto:

Risk Sentiment: Markets are clearly risk-off. BTC and crypto assets are acting as macro-sensitive risk assets, not inflation hedges—for now.

Investor Focus: All eyes are on Fed guidance tomorrow; a surprise hawkish tone could push BTC below $58K support.

Catalysts: Outside the Fed, further upside hinges on ETF inflows, macro softening, or geopolitical shocks that reframe crypto as a safe haven.

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