First, pour a盆 of cold water: Don't be blinded by Bitcoin's short-term rebound! The 'bait' from the main players has been cast, and this round of decline is highly likely to be a high-probability event for the following reasons:
1. A true bull market is never a 'solo dancer's carnival'
- Altcoins are stagnant: Currently, BTC has broken through the $20,000 mark, but most altcoins have only single-digit increases. Compared to last November when altcoins generally multiplied several times, this round of 'increase' seems more like a 'one-man show' by the main players.
- Lack of market interconnection: In historical bull markets, mainstream coins and altcoins often explode simultaneously, creating a 'fund rotation effect'. Currently, funds are highly concentrated in BTC, which instead exposes the fragility of the 'artificial market'—the main players are attracting retail investors' attention by pulling up leading coins to pave the way for subsequent operations.
2. High-level good news clustering? Beware of 'boiling frogs in warm water'
- Timeliness of good news is questionable: Recently, news such as 'tariff concessions' and 'Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations' has been released intensively, but when BTC was at high levels of $74,000 to $95,000, similar bad news (such as regulatory tightening and liquidity concerns) was overwhelming. The main players are well aware of the 'good news offloading' tactic; releasing news at high levels is essentially to 'paint a cake for retail investors'.
- Data validation anomalies: On-chain data shows that large address transfers have been frequent recently, and some long-term holding addresses have started to reduce their positions. Coupled with the derivatives market's long-short ratio climbing to 1.5 (greed sentiment overheating), the market has entered a 'high-risk speculative zone'.
3. No handover pull = "Castle in the Air"
- Short squeeze-style rise not sustainable: This round of rally has almost no pullbacks, with daily increases often exceeding 15%, but the trading volume has not increased correspondingly—typical 'volume-less empty rise'. The Federal Reserve has yet to cut interest rates, and the Bank of Japan has even released signals for rate hikes, global liquidity has not materially loosened, and a price rise lacking funding support is like 'building on sand'.
- Trapped positions and main player games: Over 400,000 BTC are trapped above $70,000. If the main players want to truly initiate a market, they must first 'wash out' the panic sell-off positions through a 'large decline'. The current rally is more likely to be for 'testing selling pressure' and to create space for subsequent declines—after all, 'first lure in the bulls and then crash' is a common harvesting tactic of the main players.
4. Historical patterns: 'Bloody cleansing' must occur before a bull market
- The inevitability of cyclical rotation: In 2018, BTC first fell by 80% before starting a bull market, and in 2020, the '3.12' crash was followed by a thousand-fold rally. The main players have never been 'charitable'; only through extreme volatility can they wash out trapped positions and leveraged funds to lighten their load.
- Technical warning signals: The weekly RSI indicator has reached 75 (overbought range), the upper Bollinger Band is narrowing, and MACD red bars are shortening. Historically, after similar patterns appear, BTC's average correction amplitude reaches 35%-50%.
Conclusion: The short-term rebound is merely a 'stalling tactic' from the main players; the real risks have yet to be released. Instead of blindly chasing highs, it is better to patiently wait for layout opportunities after a 'deep squat'—remember, bull markets never miss, but they only reward those who can endure the 'dark moments'.
Operational advice: Control your position, stay away from high leverage, and be wary of the main players' 'final pull' using good news; a major decline could arrive at any time!
