A sudden news broke in the early morning Eastern Time, former President Trump announced via social media that he would reveal a certain strategic trade agreement framework tomorrow at 10 AM (22:00 Beijing time). Stimulated by this, the Nasdaq index broke through the psychological barrier of 20,000 points in the night session, recording the largest single-day increase in nearly twenty years. The crypto market is in turmoil, with BTC/USDT completing a deep V-shaped fluctuation of 3% within 30 minutes after the news was announced.
[Intense Bull-Bear Struggle]
The current coin price is stuck at a key psychological level, and the market is showing three abnormal signals:
1️⃣ The funding rate for perpetual contracts has turned negative against the trend, but the open interest continues to rise.
2️⃣ The on-chain transfer volume of whale addresses surged by 47% in a single day, reaching a new high since April 2021.
3️⃣ In CME options open contracts, the proportion of $100,000 call options has exceeded 35%.
▶️ Bullish Scenario: If we can stabilize above the weekly trend line at $98,500, combined with the liquidity spillover effect from US stocks, it may replicate the short squeeze market when it broke through the historical barrier of $20,000 in December 2020.
▶️ Bearish Scenario: Daily RSI continues to show divergence at the top, and the 4-hour MACD histogram is showing a contraction, beware of a repeat of the trap for bulls following the CME futures listing in January 2018.
According to on-chain monitoring, three leading market makers after the news was announced:
• Rapidly opened a hedging position worth $1.2 billion in BTC/USDT.
• Adjusted the ETH/BTC hedging ratio to 1:1.5.
• Unusually posted a dense liquidity wall in the range of $88,000 to $95,000.
At this moment, the market is playing out a rare "open card game" in modern financial history. It is advised that ordinary investors remember three iron rules:
1️⃣ Maintain less than 50% position flexibility before major events.
2️⃣ When breaking through key levels, observe the confirmation of three 4-hour candlestick bodies.
3️⃣ Be cautious of reverse fluctuations after the "shoe drops" and set a dynamic stop-loss and take-profit at 3%.
The darkness before dawn is the hardest to endure. Everyone should tread carefully and wait for the moment when the moon shines on the Golden Mountain.
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