#btcpridiction
Key Points:
Bitcoin’s 30-day Nasdaq correlation has jumped to +0.70, debunking the market decoupling narrative.
U.S. recession fears and Fed rate cut bets are creating a mixed macro backdrop for BTC.
Bitcoin must hold above $91,300–$93,200 to maintain bullish momentum, warn analysts.
Nasdaq Bitcoin concept
QQQM
+0.44%
+2.34%
Bitcoin’s (BTC) 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has climbed to +0.70, marking its strongest alignment with U.S. equities since mid-April, according to TradingView data.
BTC/USD and Nasdaq 100 correlation coefficient
BTC/USD and Nasdaq 100 correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin Rises Alongside Tech Stocks
On April 30, the Nasdaq 100 rose 2.10%, buoyed by robust earnings from major technology firms such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Amazon. Bitcoin tracked this rally closely, gaining nearly 2.12% to almost $96,400 as of May 1.
BTC/USD daily price chart vs. Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Jones
BTC/USD daily price chart vs. Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Jones. Source: TradingView
However, recent economic indicators have raised concerns about a potential U.S. recession. The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% annually in Q1 2025, the first decline since early 2022, driven primarily by a surge in imports ahead of newly implemented tariffs.
Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 45%, up from 35%, citing factors such as trade policy uncertainties and weakening economic indicators.
Many traders fear that a U.S. recession could negatively impact cryptocurrencies.
