Whether interest rates are cut or not, how many months are you planning to hold this imitation, or are you planning to hold it for years? This was already within market expectations..

If retail investors all know that it's bad news and go short, do you think the main players will carry you on their backs?

Otherwise, why overthink? Trading is not about research; don't complicate simple matters. Experienced traders always pursue simple trades. Are you, someone who plays contracts short-term, really going to talk about beliefs?

Make high-probability trades at high-probability positions; as long as the risk-reward ratio is good enough, why insist on the win rate?

If you lose 5 trades, would you rather recover with one single trade or recover with ten trades?

So, is the focus more on profit and loss or on win rate?