I think markets may end up moving up given FED is data dependent could have a risk-on summer.

That stops as soon as negative data comes out regarding deterioration in labour market from tariff policies. Latter half of the year could see a meaningful correction.

This leads into a FED pivot in policy and ends up cutting rates by 50-100 bps coupled with tax cuts and deregulation.

Positive tailwinds for 2026 especially since Trump mid-terms are Nov 26 and bragging about the stock market and Bitcoin price.