On May 7, according to CME's 'Fed Watch' data, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision tonight (May 8 at 2 AM Beijing time), with a 4.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in May and a 95.6% probability of keeping rates unchanged.
The current probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until June is 70.3%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 28.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 1.2%.
2. The U.S. Senate will vote on a key stablecoin bill on Thursday, with increasing partisan divides.
On May 7, TheBlock reported that Senate Majority Leader John Thune has submitted a motion to terminate debate on the stablecoin (GENIUS Bill) (officially the 2025 Stablecoin Innovation Act), with a key procedural vote scheduled for Thursday. This bill, led by Bill Hagerty, requires stablecoins to be 100% backed by liquid assets such as U.S. dollars or short-term government bonds. The bill needs 60 votes in favor; the current Senate has 53 Republican seats and 47 Democratic seats, meaning Republicans need to secure support from at least 7 Democrats.
On the Democratic side, Senator Ruben Gallego and 8 others have co-signed to oppose the current version, calling for stronger regulation of foreign issuers and anti-money laundering provisions. Senator Richard Blumenthal has sent an inquiry letter to Trump-associated cryptocurrency company World Liberty Financial to investigate potential conflicts of interest. On the Republican side, Rand Paul criticized the excessive regulation of stablecoins, while Senator Josh Hawley expressed concern that tech giants might use this to issue stablecoins. This vote comes amid controversy over the Trump family's cryptocurrency interests, with Democrats continuing to pressure for an assessment of how the President's business dealings affect policy. If passed, this bill would become the first federal-level stablecoin regulatory framework in the U.S.
3. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds to the high-level China-U.S. economic and trade talks: This meeting is being held at the request of the U.S. side.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the Vice Premier will visit Switzerland from May 9 to 12 and will hold talks with the U.S. side during that time. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that the U.S. has recently expressed a desire to negotiate with China. This meeting is being held at the request of the U.S. side, and China's firm opposition to the U.S. abusing tariffs remains unchanged. At the same time, we have repeatedly stated that China is open to dialogue, but any dialogue must be based on equality, respect, and reciprocity. Any form of pressure or coercion will not work on China. China will firmly safeguard its legitimate interests and uphold international fairness and justice.
4. Analysts: The Fed will indicate no intention to break the deadlock in the short term.
U.S. Treasury and Eurozone government bond yields were little changed in early trading as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in Wednesday's decision, and due to strong recent U.S. economic data, it is unlikely to signal a rate cut in the coming months. KBC bank analysts stated in a report: 'The Fed is expected to keep rates stable and has no intention of breaking the deadlock in the short term.'
5. Bitcoin Core may remove the OP_RETURN 80-byte limit in the next upgrade.
According to a developer statement, the next version of Bitcoin Core may abolish the restriction that OP_RETURN outputs must not exceed 80 bytes.
It stated that the 80-byte cap on OP_RETURN is no longer suitable for current needs, and many private mining accelerators no longer enforce these limits, which also creates distorted incentive mechanisms.
6. Movement Labs has fired its co-founder Rushi Manche.
According to official news, Movement Labs has fired its co-founder Rushi Manche and stated that Movement will continue to move forward under a new leadership team.
In addition, detailed information regarding leadership changes and a new governance structure will be announced soon.
7. The U.S. Senate is investigating Trump's cryptocurrency activities.
Senior Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal issued an inquiry letter to World Liberty Financial and Fight Fight Fight LLC on Tuesday, investigating Trump's activities in the cryptocurrency space. The investigation focuses on potential conflicts of interest involving the TRUMP token and the WLFI (World Liberty Financial) project. Blumenthal stated that these activities may violate government ethics and federal law.#BTC☀ $BTC 
