Bitcoin's recent price movements have become more volatile. At the end of April, Bitcoin rebounded from 82K to around 94K (Cointelegraph), and after entering May, it briefly fell back to around 95K (on May 5), then surged again to about 97.3K on the evening of May 6. Overall, the spot price of BTC is fluctuating upward in the 94K–98K range. In the futures market, the price of Binance's BTC perpetual contracts moves in sync with the spot market, indicating fierce bullish and bearish competition.
Cointelegraph reports that bulls are increasing positions around 94.4K, with futures open interest increasing by about 2,000 contracts (≈ $189 million) within a few hours, and trading volume rising by 15%, indicating sustained buying pressure. Overall, both the spot and contract markets maintain an upward trend, but there is a possibility of significant range fluctuations in the short term.
Impact of Market News:
Federal Reserve and Macroeconomic Factors: Market sentiment is tense ahead of the May 7 FOMC decision by the Federal Reserve. Most observers predict that this meeting will keep interest rates unchanged (currently locking the benchmark rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range), but investors are still closely monitoring the Fed's guidance on future monetary policy. Analysts point out that even if they remain on hold, the tone of the Fed's statement or Powell's speech could trigger significant market volatility. Historically, Bitcoin's price has tended to rise following most FOMC meetings, but current economic data, such as the ISM services PMI and the Bank of England's decision, may also lead to correlated impacts, warranting close attention.
Inflation and Macroeconomic Data: Recent inflation (CPI) data in the US has not shown unexpected changes; the market generally believes that inflationary pressures have eased, but there is still limited impact on monetary policy in the short term (as stated in the Crypto Daybook, 'Recent inflation concerns have limited the Fed's easing space').
ETF Fund Inflows: Institutional demand continues to strengthen. CoinDesk reports that last week, 11 US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $1.8 billion (approximately 18,500 BTC), far exceeding the new supply from mining during the same period (3,150 BTC). Data from IntoTheBlock and others shows that the number of active addresses on-chain has surpassed 800,000, indicating a rebound in market demand. Within a day, some analysts reported about $420 million inflowed into spot ETFs, with BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF alone seeing a net inflow of over $529 million in one day. MicroStrategy continues to buy Bitcoin, increasing its holdings by 15,355 BTC in the first week of May, with total holdings exceeding 553,000 BTC. All these indicate that institutional capital is flowing back and providing support for prices.
Institutional Perspectives and Other Factors: Despite strong upward momentum, some analysts caution bulls to be wary. Glassnode research shows that as prices approach the $100,000 mark, long-term holders may start to take profits, potentially slowing the pace of upward movement. Swiss blockchain consulting firm (Swissblock) points out that the current funding rate is negative and open interest is high, meaning that shorts are increasing positions in anticipation of a rebound, posing a risk of pullback if bullish momentum weakens. On the other hand, analyst Michael van de Poppe believes that as long as gold experiences a pullback after the FOMC, Bitcoin is still likely to maintain a moderate upward trend. Additionally, Bitcoin's market dominance has risen to levels not seen since 2021, indicating a flow of capital from high-risk altcoins back to Bitcoin. The funding rate, open interest, and trading volume in the contract market.
Open Interest (OI): Recently, the number of outstanding contracts in the futures market has significantly increased. Cointelegraph reports that Bitcoin futures open interest increased by about 2,000 contracts (≈ $189 million) within a few hours; Matrixport data shows that the total market value of open futures contracts rose from about $22 billion to $29 billion. A significant increase in open interest usually indicates heightened market participation, regardless of bullish or bearish sentiment.
Funding Rate: The funding rate has recently been close to neutral overall but with significant fluctuations. Cointelegraph statistics show that the funding rate has generally remained near zero, only briefly spiking to 0.018% on May 6. On the other hand, according to data from CryptoRover and Coinglass, as of May 3, the funding rate on major exchanges like Binance remained negative (around -0.012%). A negative funding rate indicates that shorts are dominant and bearish sentiment is strong, potentially signaling future short-squeeze opportunities. Overall, the funding rate does not exhibit a clear one-sided tendency, with bullish and bearish forces relatively balanced.
Trading Volume: Futures trading volume has significantly increased. Reports indicate that alongside the recent price rise, the daily trading volume of Bitcoin futures has increased by about 15% compared to previous periods, indicating improved market liquidity and interest. This coincides with a rise in open interest, suggesting new capital is entering to test the market.
Technical Analysis:
Key Support/Resistance: Bitcoin's current main resistance level is in the range of approximately $94,000–$98,500. Recently, prices have repeatedly formed a resistance cluster in the 94K–96K range, created by descending trend lines, horizontal resistance, and Fibonacci retracement levels; US media analysis suggests that if the closing price can stand above 96K this week, it is likely to open up upward space, conversely, if it falls below 94K, it could easily trigger a pullback. Looking longer-term, the psychological barrier of 100K is also an important pressure point. Support levels below are around 94K and 92.5K (near previous lows). K-line shape: On the monthly level, a long bullish candle formed in April, breaking through the continuous bearish pattern of previous months; however, it has not yet completely broken through the January high, and the monthly pattern has not fully established a bullish trend. On the weekly level, Bitcoin has recently shown a pattern with long upper shadows, with bulls repeatedly testing without success, indicating that profit-taking selling pressure is evident at high levels. On the daily level, Bitcoin has fallen out of the previous short-term ascending channel and has frequently formed upper shadows, showing that short-term bullish momentum has weakened.
Technical Indicators: Multiple indicators point to adjustment signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown bearish divergence at the monthly level and has fallen back below 70 from high levels. The daily RSI has also fallen below the neutral line of 50; the MACD fast line is nearing a death cross and is shrinking at high levels (bottom red bars increasing), indicating weakened momentum. Notably, this is the first time since the start of this rebound that both the RSI and MACD have simultaneously fallen below the neutral line. Overall, the short-term technical outlook is cautious, with signs of waning bullish momentum.
Comprehensive Analysis and Short-term Recommendations:
In summary, the Bitcoin market shows a divergence between bulls and bears: on one hand, positive factors such as institutional capital inflow (with net inflows into ETFs reaching hundreds of millions of dollars), a rebound in on-chain activity, and an increase in market dominance indicate strong long-term demand; the surge in futures open interest, increased trading volume, and active positioning by major players also support expectations for further price increases (Cointelegraph reports that bulls are actively opening positions). On the other hand, the proximity to key resistance levels, divergence in technical indicators, and risks from macro events cannot be ignored (such as the US interest rate decision and Middle East geopolitics). Market analysis suggests that if Bitcoin can stabilize above the 95K region, it is likely to continue to challenge the 98–100K range; conversely, if it faces resistance and falls back, it may quickly retrace to the 92K-94K support levels. Given the current situation, short-term trading suggestions lean towards 'buying on dips.' Reasons include: the Federal Reserve is expected to remain on hold (if the statement is dovish, bulls will benefit); institutional capital continues to flow in, indicating a general market inclination to buy; and the negative funding rate suggests potential short-squeeze opportunities. If the trend continues, buying can be strategically done near key support (around 94K), with a target focus on the 98–100K region. However, it should be noted that events such as the Federal Reserve meeting may cause short-term volatility, and technical indicators are sending warning signals; any trading should strictly set stop losses, control positions, and flexibly adjust strategies based on breakout and retracement scenarios (for example, if it falls below 94K, then stop loss or turn to a wait-and-see approach). Risk warning: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The Bitcoin and contract markets are highly volatile, and investment should be approached with caution and proper risk management.
Conclusion: Based on the current information from the contract and spot markets, Bitcoin is inclined to continue its upward trend in the short term (1–3 days), with a recommendation to focus on buying (accumulate on dips), while remaining vigilant about the pullback risks posed by key resistance levels.