In the context of strong USD appreciation and global macro factors fluctuating, BTC/USDT is maintaining a short-term uptrend but faces the risk of correction. This article analyzes key technical indicators and proposes an appropriate trading strategy.
1. Overview Across Time Frames
15-minute and 1-hour frames: Short-term uptrend dominates, but there are signs of weakening momentum.
4-hour frame: The latest update shows that the uptrend is still maintained, but trading volume is gradually decreasing.
Daily frame: Medium-term signals remain positive, but profit-taking pressure may arise soon.
2. Analyzing Technical Indicators
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
EMA(7) > EMA(25) > EMA(99) on most time frames → Confirms the short-term upward trend.
However, the gap between EMA lines is narrowing, indicating that the upward momentum is slowing down → Caution is needed regarding the possibility of a correction.
RSI Index
RSI(6) fluctuates from 68 to 79 in some frames → Sign of entering the overbought zone.
RSI(12) and RSI(24) maintain around the 60-67 level → There is still room for growth but the range is narrowing.
MACD
MACD remains above the 0 threshold in all time frames → Upward momentum is still dominant.
However, the signal line (DIF) is flattening, indicating that the upward momentum may weaken in the short term.
Trading Volume
Current volume is below the average of 5 and 15 sessions → Lack of confirmation for a strong uptrend.
3. Macroeconomic Factors: Strong USD Appreciation
The USD is appreciating strongly, putting pressure on risky assets like Bitcoin:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 99.43 points, reflecting the strength of the greenback against a basket of major currencies.
The USD/VND exchange rate in the informal market exceeds 26,500 VND/USD, indicating high domestic demand for USD.
Gold prices have fallen sharply after reaching a peak, reflecting a shift in capital flow to USD.
4. Suggested Trading Strategy
Scenario 1: Continuing Uptrend (Probability ~60%)
Entry point: 96,000 – 96,500 USDT
Stop loss: Below EMA(99) around 95,000 USDT
Take profit: Range 98,000 – 99,000 USDT
Note: RSI is near the overbought zone and EMA is narrowing, so trading volume should be limited.
Scenario 2: Waiting for a Correction (Probability ~40%)
Wait to buy: When the price adjusts to the range of 94,500 – 95,000 USDT
Activation condition: Clear recovery signal at EMA(25) or EMA(99)
Advantages: Optimize entry point with a better risk/reward ratio
5. Risk Management
Recommended profit/risk ratio: 1:2
Trading volume: No more than 2-3% of total capital
Closely monitor the 4h and 1D frames to timely adjust strategies when new fluctuations occur.
Conclusion
BTC/USDT is maintaining a short-term upward trend thanks to support from EMA and MACD; however, weak trading volume and RSI approaching the overbought zone are warning signals. Additionally, the strengthening of the USD and other macro factors may put pressure on Bitcoin's price for correction. Traders should consider carefully before entering a position and continuously update market developments to manage risks effectively.
Note: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. Investors need to combine technical analysis with macro factors to make accurate decisions.