A comparison image of ETH's price behavior before and after major upgrades. Overall, ETH's price has risen sharply before the upgrade.
The Merge (15/9/2022)
1–4 weeks after the upgrade: A slight distribution pattern appears, trading volume decreases, price breaks down from short-term support → a slight sell-off occurs (about -20%) but not a panic sell. The 'sell the news' effect, combined with short-term holders taking profits after the hype phase.
-> ETH is not rising sharply and is entering a technical correction phase
Shanghai (13/4/2023)
Increase of ~87% over 4 months leading up to the upgrade. The price retests strong resistance around 2,100–2,200 but is rejected → enters sideways accumulation, trading volume gradually decreases. After 5 months post-upgrade, the price drops ~27%
Dencun (13/3/2024)
ETH's price increased parabolically, reaching important resistance levels - an increase of ~154% in just 5 months before the upgrade. But afterwards, a blow-off top appeared, volume spike along with distribution candles → strong reversal, dropping ~30% from the peak within a few weeks → forming a reversal pattern. Short-term investors panic sold, funding rate dropped sharply.
Pectra (7/5/2025)
Currently, we do not see strong bullish signals like before. ETH has declined sharply for a long time, falling into an oversold zone and showing technical signs that the downtrend is weakening.
Expectations for ETH after the Pectra upgrade:
High price volatility in the first 3-5 days, fakeouts may occur
If it does not break the support around 1,500–1,600, ETH is likely to start building a base, gradually moving up to the upper Fibo levels (1,950–2,200 area). Conversely, if it fails to hold support, ETH may return to test the 1,250 - 1,350 area.
The upgrade process will take place from 16:45 - 17:05 on May 7, 2025, according to Vietnam time. Do you have any opinions?
