#美联储FOMC会议

According to the official website of the Federal Reserve System and related reports, the FOMC meeting on May 6-7, 2025, is one of the eight annual routine meetings, and the results were announced on May 7. Here are the key information:

• Interest Rate Decision:

• The target range for the federal funds rate remains at 4.25%-4.50%, in line with market expectations, and no rate cut was made.

• This is the second time maintaining the interest rate since the March 18-19, 2025, meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious attitude towards economic data.

• Economic Outlook:

• Economic Growth: The FOMC lowered the GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.7% (previously 2.1%), reflecting concerns over trade policy uncertainty and weak consumer spending.

• Inflation: Core PCE inflation expectations were raised to 2.8% (previously 2.5%), partly due to the Trump administration's tariff policy potentially raising import prices.

• Employment: The labor market remains robust, with April non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations (approximately 228,000 new jobs added), but the unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.1%.

• Policy Tone:

• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that monetary policy will be adjusted based on data at “successive meetings,” emphasizing a patient response to trade policy (such as tariffs) and inflation pressures.

• The market interprets this as a “Hawkish Pause,” with X user @OwenJin12 noting that the Federal Reserve chose to wait due to better-than-expected employment data and inflation pressures, with no motivation for a rate cut in the short term.

• Balance Sheet:

• The Federal Reserve continues to slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction, starting in April, reducing the monthly reduction of U.S. Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion, while the redemption cap for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) remains unchanged at $35 billion.

• Market Reaction:

• After the meeting results were announced, U.S. stocks (S&P 500) fell slightly by about 0.5%, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) rose slightly, and the overall volatility in the cryptocurrency market was limited, with ETH prices maintaining in the range of $1760-$1800.