Countdown to the Federal Reserve's decision! The market bets on a 97.2% chance of no change!

The Federal Reserve is up to something big again! At 2 AM on May 8, the ticking time bomb of the interest rate decision will go off right on time.

Market data is glaringly clear: 97.2% are betting that interest rates will remain unchanged, while only 2.8% are daring to bet on an unexpected rate cut. But don't be fooled by these numbers; the futures market has already exploded—plenty of capital is frantically betting on three rate cuts in the second half of the year!

Now the entire financial circle is focused on two numbers: April's non-farm employment (an increase of 177,000) and core PCE inflation. If the inflation data throws a curveball again, the first rate cut will definitely be pushed from June to July, and the interest rate range of 4.25%-4.5% will have to endure for another three months. To be frank, as long as there is no rate hike, it's a win; even if the rate cut is delayed, it's still positive news!

Investors should keep their eyes wide open: the rate hike cycle has already turned the page. Now that the Federal Reserve is holding steady, that's a victory. The market has already fully priced in the expectation of rate cuts; even if the timing is delayed, the stock market can still rally. After all, at the critical juncture of a shift in monetary policy, expectations are worth more than reality!

This interest rate decision is not only a barometer of monetary policy but also a mirror to examine the gap between market predictions and the real economy!#非农就业数据来袭