📦 The US currently has enough inventory for 2 months of sales, about 8 weeks
- The two sides announced that they will start negotiating early this May, but are not in a hurry to close the deal yet.
- China will wait for the US warehouses to run out, then force the US to make concessions in negotiations.
🧨 Trade war likely to heat up
- Mr. Trump imposed a 145% tax on Chinese goods, but quietly exempted some items that the US needed.
- China reimposed 125% and responded by holding goods, not rushing to export, especially goods that the US needs but are not easily replaced.
📉 What does the US need to import?
- Phone, computer, machine.
- Pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical ingredients – up to 80% of drugs in the US come from China.
- Shoes, clothes, toys, rare earths – used in high technology.
🚚 In early 2025, the US increased imports from China
- Recently, American businesses have increased imports from China – to stock up before additional tariffs are imposed.
- But if the warehouse is not replenished, it will be empty in just a few months.
- It is not easy to produce these items from other countries.
💣 What risks await Trump?
- Prices of goods increased sharply due to high taxes.
- Empty supermarket shelves if there is no additional goods.
- Inflation, shortages, pressure on people and businesses.
📅 What is the episode waiting for?
- When inventory is depleted.
- When people react because of high prices and shortages.
- When the advantage is on Xi's side, the two sides will sit down to finalize the deal before the crisis breaks out.
In short:
- In the pain-endurance contest, whoever endures pain better wins.
- Tariffs have subsided, but the simmering could flare up again at any time!