If a war breaks out between Pakistan and India, the impact on Bitcoin’s price globally would likely be limited and temporary, unless it escalates into a broader regional or global conflict.

Here’s a realistic scenario breakdown:

Mild to Moderate Conflict (Localized War)

  • Global BTC impact: Minor

    Expected drop: 1%–5%, possibly within the first 24–72 hours due to risk aversion.

  • Reason: Crypto markets are global; South Asia is not a dominant player in terms of institutional crypto capital or volume.

Severe Conflict or Escalation (Nuclear threat, foreign intervention)

  • Global BTC impact: Moderate to high

  • xpected drop: 5%–15% temporarily

  • Reason: Global financial markets may enter panic mode; investors move to cash, USD, or gold.

Investor Sentiment Curve

  • Initial panic: BTC may fall sharply.

  • If war drags on or spreads: Market volatility continues.

  • In later phases, some investors might turn to BTC as a hedge against fiat or collapsing local economies.

  • Key Points:

  • India-Pakistan war alone is unlikely to crash BTC like in 2022 (which was due to macro tightening + crypto frauds).

  • BTC behaves like a risk asset short-term, but may recover if global financial systems appear unstable.

  • Finnal Thought:

The exact price drop depends on global investor behavior, not just regional events. Unless the war causes wider instability (e.g., affecting China, oil routes, U.S. involvement), the drop would likely be under 10% and short-lived.