$BTC Bond futures traders and strategists are virtually certain the Fed will hold rates steady at a range of 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday. Rates have been sitting in that range since last December. Futures markets see a roughly 28% chance of a cut at the Fed’s June meeting, down from 60% ahead of employment data released Friday. Markets now see a roughly 56% chance of a cut in July and are pricing in three rate cuts for the remainder of 2025.

Many also pushed out their expectations for cuts to July in the wake of the jobs report. But the positive momentum may not last. While Friday’s report showed sustained job growth that exceeded economists’ expectations, “it’s still quite unclear if current positive employment trends are sustainable given the impact of tariffs,” says Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist for Morningstar Investment Management. “A strong employment picture does nothing to alleviate the Fed’s inflation-related concerns and will likely prevent them from cutting rates sooner than expected.”