A Crypto Carnival of Politics and Capital
As a KOL in the crypto circle, I have observed that Trump Coin ($TRUMP) has become the focus of the crypto market since its inception. It is not only a milestone in the combination of politics and blockchain but also a textbook case of human game-playing and market manipulation. The following analysis covers four aspects: price volatility, underlying logic, investment strategies, and future risks.
I. Price Volatility and Event-Driven: From 'Creating a God' to 'Harvesting Chives' Dramatically
1. Myth of Soaring Prices
Trump Coin opened at $0.18 in January 2025, skyrocketing to $75 within 12 hours, a more than 412-fold increase, with a market capitalization exceeding $80 billion. Its core driving forces include:
Political Empowerment: Trump converted 600,000 voters into token addresses through NFT airdrops and campaign donation channels.
Celebrity Effect: Trump and his family members have repeatedly promoted their products on social media, even stimulating demand through events like announcing dinners with token holders, leading to a single-day increase of 71%.
2. Truth Behind the Plunge
The fragility of the price was laid bare after the launch of the 'First Lady Coin'—after the introduction of the Melania token (MELANIA), Trump Coin plummeted 60% within 30 minutes, evaporating $7.5 billion in market value. Subsequently, accompanied by regulatory pressures (such as the SEC lawsuit for unregistered securities issuance) and chip sell-offs, the price has long been in a downward trend to the current range of about $11-14.
II. Underlying Logic: The 'Double-Edged Sword' of Political Empowerment
1. Strong Binding of Political Narrative and High Risk
Double-Edged Sword Effect: The value of Trump Coin relies entirely on its political influence. For example, the SEC lawsuit resulted in the coin's value halving in a single day, but a tweet from Trump insulting the SEC caused a rapid rebound.
Policy Expectation Game: The market bets that if Trump is elected, he will promote 'crypto-friendly policies' (such as easing regulations and establishing Bitcoin reserves), but this expectation is essentially a 'castle in the air,' lacking actual policy support.
2. High Concentration of Chips and Market Manipulation
Family Control: 80% of the tokens are held by entities associated with Trump, which will gradually unlock over the next three years, creating long-term selling pressure. On-chain data shows that the top five addresses cashed out over $300 million in Q1 2025.
Liquidity Trap: Whales often pump the price in the early morning, triggering follow-on buying before dumping, netting over $17 million in a single operation.
III. Investment Strategies: How to 'Dance with Wolves' in High Volatility
1. Options Hedging
For an annualized volatility of 287%, professional players can profit through options strategies:
Hedging with Insurance: Buy out-of-the-money put options when holding spot positions, with premiums controlled at 5%-10%.
Fat Tail Arbitrage: After a significant drop, target deeply out-of-the-money call options, such as buying options expiring the following week after a 20% drop in a single day.
2. Event-Driven Trading
Short-Term Sniping: Pay attention to Trump's social media dynamics and political activities (such as dinners, debates), keeping the holding period within 90 minutes.
Delayed Unlocking Game: The project team once postponed the unlocking of $600 million worth of tokens by 90 days, temporarily alleviating selling pressure and triggering a short squeeze.
3. Chip Monitoring
Use Arkham or Nansen to track the movements of the top 50 addresses; immediately reduce positions when whales transfer coins to exchanges.
IV. Future Outlook: The End of the Bubble and the Sword of Regulation
1. Risks of Unlocking and Selling Pressure
Starting in 2025, 80% of tokens (about 800 million) will gradually be unlocked, putting long-term pressure on prices.
2. High Regulatory Pressure
The SEC has sued for 'unregistered securities issuance'; if they lose, it could go to zero; the EU and other regions have banned exchanges from listing TRUMP, further shrinking liquidity.
3. Market Sentiment Inflection Points
Currently, social media discussion heat has decreased by 70%, and the Google search index has halved. If Trump's policies do not materialize as expected or family scandals erupt, the collapse of consensus will accelerate.
Conclusion: The Sober Awareness Behind the Carnival
The essence of Trump Coin is a collusion of political power and crypto capital. While there may be speculative opportunities in the short term, in the long run, meme coins lacking technical support, application scenarios, and compliance will ultimately 'return to dust.' For retail investors, participation requires strict discipline: light positions, stop-loss, and not getting attached to fights. As Buffett said, 'In the crypto world, don't let yourself be the last one holding the bag.'
(This article represents personal views and does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks, and decisions should be made cautiously.)
