Countdown to the Federal Reserve's decision at #美联储FOMC会议 ! The market bets on a 97.2% chance of no change!

The Federal Reserve is about to do something big again! At 2 a.m. on May 8, the time bomb of the interest rate decision will explode on time.

The market data is glaringly clear: 97.2% of people are betting that interest rates will remain unchanged, while only 2.8% are daring to bet on an unexpected rate cut. But don't be fooled by these numbers; the futures market has already blown up—huge amounts of capital are frantically betting on three rate cuts in the second half of the year!

Now the entire financial circle is focused on two numbers: April's non-farm employment (an increase of 177,000) and core PCE inflation. If the inflation data plays tricks again, the first rate cut will definitely be postponed from June to July, and the interest rate range of 4.25%-4.5% will have to endure for another three months. To be frank, as long as there is no rate hike, it counts as a win; even a delayed rate cut is a good thing!

Investors should keep their eyes wide open: the rate hike cycle has already turned the page, and now the Federal Reserve's inaction is a victory. The market has already fully priced in the expectation of rate cuts; even if the timeline is pushed back, the stock market can still soar. After all, at the turning point of monetary policy, expectations are worth more than reality!

This interest rate decision is not only a barometer of monetary policy but also a mirror to test the gap between market predictions and the real economy!

A major correction is coming! The Democrats are about to hit Trump in the face; the air force is assembling!