Be careful! The interest rate meeting on Thursday may be explosive, and the June rate cut might fall through. Can the bull market still arrive as scheduled?
Bitcoin ETF inflows have set a record. Is it time to escape the peak? Or is the bull market just beginning?
As for when Ethereum will upgrade, how should we operate? Let's follow Shu Qin to take a look~
First, let's look at the interest rate meeting that the whole world is watching, which will take place on Wednesday night, or Thursday at 2 AM. It will determine the expectations for the next bull or bear market in the capital market. This meeting will announce three major important issues, and we have data that can give us a sneak peek.
The first is the result of this interest rate meeting, which is undoubtedly a 100% probability of no rate cut. The market has already priced this in, so this result will have no impact on the cryptocurrency market.
However, the impact of the second event is too significant and has reversed, which is that the Federal Reserve will provide guidance for the next interest rate meeting. This is crucial for determining whether it can cut rates again after six months, which is especially important for assessing future trends.
Unfortunately, based on the latest interest rate market results, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in June has halved from 68% to 31.8%, while the probability of not cutting rates is 67%. Therefore, the probability of Powell's speech on Wednesday night being negative is two-thirds, and the probability of it being positive is one-third, which we should pay attention to.
Of course, Shu Qin is not concerned about short-term negativity. What I care about is that if there is no rate cut by June, the next opportunity to cut rates will not come until the end of July, which is too long a gap, unfavorable for the market, and may cause some corrections until a rate cut or a tariff agreement is reached.
So I am currently very cautious, exiting long-term positions and planning to observe for a while before making further decisions, after all, we have already made quite a bit. Even if Powell unexpectedly says he will cut rates and we miss out on a 5% rise, I won't regret it, since the rate cut is only in June, there is still plenty of time for me to buy back calmly, and risk control is the top priority.
For example, Nasdaq-listed mining company BitFarm has stated that it will no longer purchase mining machines this year and is also reducing its Bitcoin holdings. This is clearly not an isolated case, as Bitcoin's overall hash rate is declining, and other mining companies are also reducing their mining machines, which is not a very bullish signal.
Then the Bitcoin whale Spoofy is also selling. Previously, they bottomed out at 70-80 thousand, and now they are close to 100 thousand in selling. They have been selling for almost two weeks, and it is expected they will be completely out in about 10 days. So if there are high points in the next two weeks, you might consider exiting some positions. If the Federal Reserve does not cut rates, I might even consider making a low-leverage short. Everyone should pay attention to my updates on the latest whale movements.
The concern here is that the impact of tariffs will gradually unfold, as unemployment numbers have already begun to soar. Furthermore, the boastful Trump did not deny in an interview that the US could enter a recession and stated that he could temporarily accept a recession.
Just look, a person as confident as Trump, who has all the data from the United States, does not dare to guarantee that there won't be a financial crisis. I think the probability of recession cannot be ignored until the Federal Reserve saves the market and the bull market restarts.
Because while consensus in the cryptocurrency space is important, Trump's new policies have completely disrupted the capital market, acting as a black swan. We retail investors can only adapt and wait for Powell to save the market.
After all this bad news, are there any good news in the market? Let's analyze objectively. Well, there actually is.
Interest in Bitcoin on Wall Street has begun to surge. Over the past two weeks, there has been net inflow of funds almost every day, which is linked to the US stock market, as it has recently broken a 20-year record, creating the longest consecutive rise since 2004, rising for 9 days straight.
So can we continue to rise for the tenth day tonight? I think we should first pull back to solidify prices; that may be more reasonable. So Shu Qin advised everyone to take profits on long positions at 97,000, just selling at the highest point at that time. Then, as we said last week, Trump is about to crash, so we hurried to sell the spot. Now looking back, we really did escape the peak. These operations and points are updated in real-time, so if you're interested, you can come take a look.
Okay, let's continue. Ethereum is finally upgrading on May 7, but this upgrade is arguably the quietest one yet, with little market enthusiasm. I estimate that it won't rise much on the day of the upgrade, so it might be wise to take some profits now and watch for a while, because after the upgrade there will be the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, which has a greater impact on the capital market, as we just analyzed.
Then the meme coin OZK surged 30% today. I saw on their official website that they will announce multiple positive news in May. What we know so far is the token burn announced for May 7, and there may be other positive news like mainnet launches, token staking, or listings, but we don't know when it will be announced. In any case, you can take some profits when there's a high point, no problem.
As for our broader strategy, we should refer to when Spoofy will re-enter the market and how the Federal Reserve views the possibility of a June rate cut on Thursday. There is no need to gamble on rises and falls in advance; the risks are too great. Once their results come out, we can operate accordingly.
If Powell hints at a rate cut starting in June, we can buy back some positions. There's plenty of time until June, but the probability of this event is only 31%.
If Powell hawkishly does not cut rates, there could be a sharp drop, so I would rather earn less than be left hanging at the top of the mountain. If we wait patiently for a few days, we will know the results. When trading cryptocurrencies, do not rush; we should charge forward when the situation is clear!