ETH Daily Quick Review: After breaking below $1800, is it bottom fishing or escaping?
Brothers, on May 6th at 3 PM, ETH is making moves again! I just checked the market, and the price is hovering around $1799, down about 0.1% for the day, but don't underestimate this number; there are hidden currents behind the market.
1. Technical aspects: Support levels are critical, can the bulls hold on?
ETH dipped directly to $1794 early this morning, just one step away from the bear market low of $1750 in 2024. Looking at the 4-hour chart, although the MACD histogram has shortened, the KDJ death cross has not been resolved, and there is a clear divergence between price and volume—price is rebounding but trading volume is shrinking, indicating that the bulls are not daring to push. The key short-term support is at $1798; if US stocks crash again tonight, $1750 may really not hold.
2. Giant whales cutting losses + institutions fleeing, who is dumping?
There’s a giant whale who built a position at an average price of $2550 last January, today dumped 2981 ETH on Binance, directly losing $2.18 million! This guy has already transferred nearly 30,000 ETH out in the past month, clearly cutting losses and fleeing. Even more ruthless is BlackRock, which sold 32,000 ETH in a single day, marking a new high for ETF fund outflows this year, and institutions collectively 'flipped' and shattered market confidence.
3. Ecological chain reactions: upgrade delays + staking withdrawals.
The Pectra upgrade has been indefinitely postponed due to technical issues, with staking APY expectations plummeting to 3.8%, leading to a crazy sell-off of 320,000 ETH. It's even worse on L2, with funds on Arbitrum and Optimism chains getting halved, while the new public chain SEI took the opportunity to suck in $320 million, effectively draining the ETH ecosystem.
4. Tonight's key variables: US stocks and the Federal Reserve.
Nasdaq futures are down 2.3% before the market opens, with Tesla and Nvidia leading the plunge. If US stocks continue to crash at market open, ETH may dive to $1750. Federal Reserve's Waller is also set to speak at 3 AM, with the market betting on a 68% chance of a rate hike in June; if hawkish, it could replicate the flash crash of 2023 in a minute.
Summary: Bottom fishing? First, watch these three signals!
ETH has now entered a 'death spiral'—staking withdrawals → liquidity exhaustion → price drop → more people flee. Brothers looking to bottom fish in the short term are advised to keep an eye on three signals:
Recapture the resistance level of $1852 (breaking through will open up rebound space);
US stocks stop falling + Federal Reserve dovish speech (macro sentiment warming);
Giant whales stop selling + on-chain staking inflow (restoration of ecological confidence).
In summary, don't rush to catch the falling knife; wait for right-side signals! If you're really going for a rebound, the stop-loss must be set below $1750; if it breaks, cut losses immediately. Remember, as long as you keep your principal, you won't fear missing opportunities!
