#FOMCMeeting After the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting today, May 6-7, 2025, several things that may happen are¹:
- *Interest Rate Decision*: The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50% due to high economic uncertainty in the US resulting from the trade tariffs implemented by the Trump administration.
- *Impact of Trade Tariffs*: Economists predict that trade tariffs will impact the economy, although the scale is still uncertain. This forces the Fed to balance between the risks of higher inflation and slowing economic growth.
- *Potential Interest Rate Cuts*: Markets predict that the Fed may cut interest rates at the next meeting, with a possible cut in July. However, some analysts believe that rate cuts may occur more slowly if "hard" economic data does not show significant signs of weakening.
In the coming months, the Fed must consider several factors, including²:
- *"Hard" Economic Data*: Economic data that shows real economic performance, such as GDP growth and inflation, will be a primary focus for the Fed in making monetary policy decisions.
- *"Soft" Economic Data*: Economic data based on sentiment and expectations, such as consumer and business surveys, will also be considered, but with lower weight.
- *Economic Uncertainty*: High economic uncertainty due to trade tariffs and ongoing trade negotiations makes the Fed cautious in making monetary policy decisions.