Key dates to watch in May
May 7: Federal Reserve interest rate decision
May 7: Ethereum's Pectra upgrade
May 8: US initial jobless claims
May 13: CPI data release
May 15: PPI data release
Last Thursday's Federal Reserve meeting. Although there will be no interest rate cuts in May, May 8 should still be a key date to focus on the FOMC's decision and any hawkish or dovish signals that may be revealed in Powell's post-meeting comments. The focus is whether there will be adjustments in June and July.
The Federal Reserve will still primarily look at data, and will only intervene in the market if there are clear signs of economic downturn (recession). It is essential to pay attention to Powell's statements on tariff-induced inflation. If he explicitly views inflation driven by higher tariffs as 'transitory', it may alleviate market concerns about hawkish policies.
So overall, although there is a lack of clear negative data this week, the instability of long-term rates plus the Federal Reserve's data-dependent environment means that the market will continue to be driven by macro events. Sentiment is influenced by information, and if positive news decreases, FOMO will gradually cool down. It is highly probable we will enter a consolidation phase between support levels of $93,000 and $98,000.
Survival code in a volatile market
For participants in the crypto market, two understandings need to be established this week:
Firstly, the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets is strengthening; the fluctuations of Nasdaq futures and US Treasury yields will directly affect short-term price trends.
Additionally, the market has entered a 'narrative vacuum period', lacking catalysts to break the balance before the June CPI data is released.
Investors are advised to focus on:
Results of US Treasury auctions (especially the subscription situation for 30-year bonds)
Powell's qualitative assessment of inflation stickiness
Can the US dollar index stabilize below the key level of 106?
Before the macro fog clears, Bitcoin is likely to maintain a high-level volatile pattern. This phase is both a battleground for bulls and bears and a critical window for accumulating energy for the next trend. Maintaining flexibility in positions may be more important than predicting short-term ups and downs.
If you're confused, you can come to me!!!
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