#FOMCMeeting The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is currently underway, scheduled to conclude on May 7. Here's what you need to know ¹:

- *Meeting Dates*: May 6-7

- *Interest Rate Decision*: The FOMC is expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% on May 7 at 6:00 pm GMT

- *Probability of Rate Cut*: According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut in June has fallen to 29.4% from 60.5% one week ago, while the probability of a July rate cut is around 56%

- *Market Expectations*: Markets are pricing in three rate cuts for the remainder of 2025, with some strategists expecting cuts to start in July or later due to uncertainty surrounding President Trump's tariffs and their impact on the economy

*Key Discussion Points*:

- *Tariffs and Inflation*: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will likely be pressed to comment on President Trump's tariffs and their potential impact on inflation and the economy

- *Economic Data*: The FOMC will consider both "hard" economic data, such as job growth and GDP, and "soft" data, like consumer and business sentiment

- *Rate Cut Expectations*: Some experts believe the Fed will wait for more evidence of economic weakness before cutting rates, potentially pushing the first cut to October or later

*Expert Insights*:

- *Marc Giannoni (Barclays)*: expects the FOMC statement and Powell to acknowledge higher inflation expectations and elevated uncertainty

- *Don Rissmiller (Strategas)*: believes the Fed will need to see more evidence of economic weakness before cutting rates, potentially in October

- *Lindsay Rosner (Goldman Sachs Asset Management)*: expects the Fed to be prepared to cut rates if the labor market deteriorates quickly, even if inflation remains high ²